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Investigation of (Dis-)Favor 1\3 questioning freedom of will (in Macro-society)

This item began as a simple idea to investigate "social construct" theory, a trendy theme in academia and identity politics. It turned into a staggeringly complex constellation of ideas, with surprises galore.
The idea occurs to me: validate (or not) 'social construction' of beauty. If not, then sense of beauty is innate (source is not one's society, but genetic or other episocial influences).
Natural Tendency towards Beauty in Humans: Evidence from Binocular Rivalry 2016 | plos (technical study)
Reading in Contemporary Aesthetics "Why Beauty Still Cannot Be Measured", by Ossi Naukkarinen, because beauty is a personal determination, and a metaphor of favor, but how is it determined? Example: which of these women looks beautiful to you? note: only descriptor for the AI search is "beautiful woman", AI learns about beauty by sifting mega-data; how effective is it? (achieves given goal?) AI results are socially constructed in the most explicit way possible! Beauty may not be measurable, but it can be selected (parsed) from non-beauty. Measurement is a comparison of some phenomenon to an abstract dimension. Selection is a go, no-go choice.
What is Nudge theory? This item straddles the fence between Macro and Micro societies, paradigmatic Nudges come from Macro sources, but include an option to choose without pressure to conform. Micro sources are always more direct; which side of the fence are you on, friend?. (Greener side, of course.)
What about searching for "good", images? note how often the WORD good is pictured. Good is a language construct that must be interpreted from the individual's perspective.
Ok, now search for "favor" images note that AI mostly interprets favor as a small gift, not as a preference (which is difficult to represent by image)
Well then, search for "preference", images note that the word preference happens to be used by a line of hair care products from L'Oreal, which dominates the returns... commerce rules!
social construct (def, search result)
validate (or not) 'social construction' of beauty
Is Socialism a social construct? (LoL) Socialism Defined (EVERY Country is Socialist!) 2.2k views Sep 29, 2019 Rokn'MrE
To (social) Construct, or Not to (social) Construct, is there a choice? (note most results are about gender)
Parsing gender
Discussion of gender is not my direction of choice in this part 1 investigation. I want to seek how an actor (esp. me) makes a choice, in a quest for freedom of will. Perhaps come back to gender in a future item.
person makes a choice, in a quest for freedom of will (selections available)
Exemplar Hyp (Harry) Frankfurt’s compatibilist theory of free will 2009 5pg.pdf
I notice my choice of article was partly determined, partly free, but parsing out those factors would be too much divergence from the goal here. But Truth (a two side coin) is my story, and I'm stickin' to it.
(previous link, compatibilism):
3 It explains our intuition that human beings, but not lower animals, have free will. Lower animals lack free will because they lack the second-order volitions which are constitutive of free will. (This item is unnecessary and probably not true; how do we know animals have no "second-order volitions"? Having no other language than "body", we can only surmise (guess) what their volitions are. Volitions come before actions, we cannot see them or interpret them in any way. Brain conditions might be interpreted with MRI scanning, but to put a subject in a scanning device is to prevent any other actions. Such measuring ruins the connection between mental state and volition being measured, except we can safely assume that every measurement of animals must default to the volition to escape the measuring device.)
That's the first-order, highlighted deviation from compatibility theory. Clarification of "second-order volition": a path from choice to action has an intermediate "middle-way" tunneling mode, contracting (taking on) a desire to make a choice, prior to making the choice. In order to prove freedom, one must establish the mental preference for an imagined outcome in order to prove that preference did come from within the person and was not forced by other external deciding factors (genetic factors are pre-determined).
incompatibilism Note: the approach is wrong by the universal assumption, IOW that the intersection of determined and free is zero. It's a supremacy position, or superposition principle (LoL), the error is in over-simplification. The Logic Argument (p.5) is not representative of reality, which is more nuanced. Therefore, Frankfurt's thesis is good (denial of incompatibilism), but not due to the case presented (superposition).
Take Frankfurt's case (p.4) of Black vs Jones4 to be analogy for State vs Individual. Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars (other sources exist, search for yourself)
The (myusername) determinism/free-will duality hypothesis (denial of incompatibilism due to non-zero intersection):
Most choices, including the choice of desires, are determined by contingencies of which one is the natural desire of the actor to optimize his/her outcomes ("best wishes"). Is a person always compelled to have best wishes? What is best depends on a person's mental state, which is usually determined by external factors, but those can vary in cogency (impact on behavior). Consider the choice to commit suicide, certainly not a trivial choice. (The Chosen means of execution (puns intended) is somewhat more trivial, but again, partly determined by external conditions.)
Some choices, nearly all trivial, are free because no interfering contingencies are apparent during the choosing interlude. It may happen in hindsight, that a past choice is observed to be a mistake, usually because some contingency was overlooked or unknown during the choosing. This observation should be remembered so as to avoid repeating a future choice like that mistake. Choices always have risks, including the choice to do nothing.
Different day, slightly different approach... parsing choice. 1 important choices that have many deep effects later, for instances a marriage partner, a new job, a new residence; 2 trivial choices which have minor effects, risks or physical involvement, for instances a choice of toothpaste at the market, to like or not a web-link or museum exhibit.
According to (myusername)'s determined/free paradigm, type 1 choices are nearly all determined by pre-existing conditions (not free). Type 2 choice is the arena of freedom. I suppose a person's low risk-aversion parameter could expand the envelope of freedom, but that's a characteristic that develops during maturation, one's history of choices and ensuing responses. Successful responses lead to more freedom, failures to less. So even when freedom exists, it accumulates a history (habits) which become a determinant.
Contracting the Social Construct Disorder (it's contagious) Take 1:
How does an actor (person in question who comes to an internal state, or inner-construct) interact with a community or society? Must it be IRL, or can virtual interaction suffice to construct internal states? And more to my point, must the interaction be two-way (containing feedback), or simply via broadcast medium? (broadcast includes published books, articles, records, radio, TV or Internet A/V shows, etc.)
Interaction with broadcast media can be summarized by: a choice, a degree of attention and focus (time spent on and attention given to item), a like/dislike or more complex reaction to item, having future behavior influenced by item, to continue a stream of behaviors (especially sequential item choices) as consequence of influence of item, to develop a complex of attitudes built upon stream of items (eg. just mentioned 'risk aversion parameter and habit).
Before going on, I notice that broadcast media is like Sunshine, Rain, and Grace. It is made available by participation in a community, and falls without curse or blessing, it's all there for the choosing (or ignoring), depending on the contingencies.
Mind control theory? (because mind is the inner source of volition... behavior, control the mind (easy), hence control the behaviors (difficult otherwise))
Mind control courtesy Tavistock Inst.
Construction of Favor (or any knowledge) upon Familiarity
What is Social Construction? (cntrlZ)
"For instance, trees are only differentiated from other plants by virtue of the fact that we have all learned to see them as "trees."
But we don't all know about trees to an equal degree. I know rather much about trees from my interaction with them: living among them, planting them, sawing them, moving them, burning them, etc., not from reading or talking about them. No doubt, there are many persons all over the world who have very little experience of trees, and cannot 'construct' treeness as well as me. Direct experience is more realistic and developed than social constructs.
Favor and Familiarity are interwoven by choice
I chose to live alone with trees and not alone with sea, or desert (for examples), because it was easier to go with trees. Was the choice free? I could have chosen city or suburb with even more ease than forest, so ease of choice was not the deciding factor, it was my preference of lonely forest over crowded urb that decided me. So maybe it wasn't really about trees, it was about independence or something else like that. When we choose, we may not understand the contingencies, but our decision (choice) may be due to habits or patterns that have developed in the maturity process. Habits are strong determinants, and they develop, according to Ian Plowman, 4 ways.
The cntrlZ article makes the case for 'Strong Social Construction' based on that 'knowing' which is all about language, certainly a social construct.
Within the social construction of language is the game. Outside the social construction is reality, the real world. (a list of social constructs follows)
That makes it clear. Experiences (direct ones) without resort to language are NOT social constructs. That observation makes another distinction clear: gender may be a social construct, as it's a language issue, but sex is not a social construct, it is a direct experience issue that develops in the maturation process: birth, infant, child, puberty, sexy adolescent, sexy adult, old (unsexy) adult, death. Prior to puberty, sex is incipient in its development, but comes to life, (like a flower blooms) after a decade or so. Knowing about sex as a child is by observation from outside (thru the looking glass), after puberty, it's direct experience, and much later, it's a fading memory.
Regarding Looking-glass self theory the notion of socially constructed identity (defining the self by differences/ affinities to others),
... the outcome of "taking the role of the other", the premise for which the self is actualized. Through interaction with others, we begin to develop an identity of our own as well as developing a capacity to empathize with others... Therefore, the concept of self-identity may be considered an example of a social construction.
... makes a spurious expansion of identity formation to include everyone (a unity), or nearly so. According to Reisman's Lonely Crowd, there is a triality of social nature, expounded by parsing people into tradition, inner, and other directed personalities. This theme was a scholar's response to the US trend toward consumerism and conformity to "norms", (local traditions, eg. "keeping up with the Joneses") mid-20th century. The social construct crowd would be Reisman's Other directed personality, which may truly be the majority, in USA certainly. However, the tradition-following and inner-directed personalities are a significant minority. Let's not ignore them (I'm in there.)
What is “Mob Mentality?”
Herd mentality | wkpd
Are All Personality Descriptions Social Constructions? Sep.2019 | psytdy
... that objective reality does not directly reveal itself to us, is true beyond a doubt.
The preceding statement author, JA Johnson, is way off (and his article is full of falseness). Objective reality IS direct experience, no more revealing modality exists. Denial of this obvious fact (just lied about above) is a redefinition of the term (a social construct). Experience is beyond language, thus beyond 'description'. However the following is a true reveal about (((Yews))) (the like of whom Dr. Johnson seems):
It is true that when we describe someone with socially undesirable traits... we are constructing for them a social reputation that might decrease their chance of success in life. This is precisely one of the concerns of (((social constructivists, like Dr. Johnson))), that certain categorizations (eg. a separate race) reduce power and status.
Proof that Truth is not a social construct (relative to culture, like morality absolutely is)... What do you believe in? Cultural Relativism
Conformity is a social construct (should be obvious, it's a social source of choices). What causes conformity? Social interactions, which traditionally occurred (Macro-version) in newspapers, magazines, cinema and radio programs. As culture changed the popular media to radio, TV and then to Internet, and church attendance fell out of vogue, the advertising industry became more powerful in defining social constructs. That's why Internet censorship is so important.
Who are the 'influencers' in society? (They used to be parents, teachers, peers... now it seems to be YouTubers, like PewDiePie. But an intentionally underplayed contingent of influencers is the predominantly Left-Leaning academia, who collectively promote Marxist preferences and political activism toward Socialist positions. Academia is pushing social construction because it provides an intellectual framework that denies the old (social injustice), and says ok to their preferred ideology, Cultural Marxism (new social "just us"; socially constructed ideas can be anything you want, their cogency depends on efficacy of publication).
Micro-Social Constructs are most cogent (due to conformity being human nature), discussed in part 2.
Bottom Line (part 1)
If you like freedom, and are serious about it, you must distance yourself from society, because it tries to reconstruct you according to the norm... conform!
Before you go, think about what is a hermit?, which should not be confused with Hermetic, name derived from Greek god Hermes. 7 Great Hermetic Principles – The Teachings of Thoth (illustrated)... same topic 2016
Investigation of (Dis-)Favor 2\3, Micro-Societies
Social Circles; Mates, Kin, Friends
note on Mates: school-, (prison) in-, marriage-, ship-, etc. note on my link choices, page rank has a strong influence
Social group (aka circle)
Is Conformity Human Nature? Don't blow this list off, if you want to understand social constructs. At least look at first item.
What is Social Proof?
Are Micro-societies any less 'constructing' than Macros? Or do some constructs exist for all realms, macro and micro? I think they are more constructing, because micros carry feedback, whereas macro is all absorption, individuals have negligible effects on society at large. They act in a statistical sense, with a few exceptions.
Concept vs Percept (concepts are stable mental recordings, and physical manifestations of them; percepts are changing sensations and reflexes which depend strongly on the situation, memories of which are variable too)
Favor, Good, and Beauty are words that belong in the same 'conceptual basket' (ward), they are alike, all refer to action 'like', as an affective (and affirmative) perception. Conversely for the word's opposites.
Perceptions are non-language reactions to stimuli, therefore not social constructs. They may be evoked into a social arena via language (or other virtual records), but these are only shadows of the perception, so what is evoked is drawn up from the receiver's own memories of perceptions.
Division of Labor (and role models) are Social Constructs
Sex is the most basic divider of labor, for all societies, especially the most primitive. As societies develop towards more technical, sex falls away from the divider, as natural talent and innate interest gain influence, until the basic operations of reproduction remain, the core division. What about rankings in the division?
natural tendency for dominance?
Are males naturally dominant in nature? | qra
(arguments opposing) Male Dominance (theory) with (bogus) "Explanations", by 2 feminist authors using Marxist ideology 2017 | verso While this blog seems to have obvious (to me) flaws, it does raise interesting ideas and references.
what attributes help males gain social status? Basic: status is competitive. It takes talent and effort to win.
To Raise Male Status (18 Rules) | @rctvmn (not because age 18 is best)
Dominance vs Prestige 2010 | psytdy Note: blatant bias toward Prestige via argument parsing Pride. (author is Jewish, maligns DJ Trump (nationalist), lauds John Lennon (globalist))
modes of thought: socially-controlled vs spontaneous
Major Component of Social-Construction: Public Education 3 Modes of Thought Jan.2019
Kaufman again: How Renaissance People Think 2011 | psytdy Note: We discussed concept vs percept, here Kaufman refers to fellow-Jew Seymour Epstein's dual modish rational vs experiential theory, same idea set.
polymath (short for Renaissance Man)
Favor-Goodness-Beauty paradigm
Favor is not favored in prior art, Truth takes Favor's place in the Transcendental Spectrum: Transcendentals 5pg.pdf
We have already seen the idea in part 1 that Truth is a disputed transcendental in the social-constructionism academic universe. Academics use the "universal fallacy" that their favored item is part of an incompatible pair, which by logic excludes everything not in their favor. They want to ignore the nuances in order to push an ideology toward a supremacy of thinking, just like in a totalitarian state.
Whereas the (myusername) principle of Truth, it has a dual nature, 1 relative to a society (democratic consensus); and 2 absolute to reality (math/science/technology). So 'Favor' is a better term because objective proof (no contest) is not required (except the meaning of objective that says 'objection!', meaning 'contest'). 'Favor' implies bias which is the subjective reaction that matches Goodness and Beauty better than 'Truth'.
Apply Truth-Goodness-Beauty paradigm to social construction
it is unconcerned with ontological issues...
because the aim of constructionists is to justify a collective "truth" of their own construction. A social construct is not absolute, it's anything a society wants it to be ("social proof"). That's a good description of tyranny... The Empowered Female Parasite 2014 (that's a surprising result, here is one not-surprising.)
Social Proof: established by culture media (mind control, a monopoly 2012 (scroll down long graphic), of the Juice 2015), go back to part 1, macrosocial constructs.
Does Appreciation of Beauty have any innate sources? (otherwise it's all a social construct) Neuroscience of Beauty; How does the brain appreciate art? 2011 | sciam (in brain)
Onward (Dis)-Favor Readers...
Investigation of (Dis-)Favor 3\3, House of Not-Friends
Contracting the Social Construct Disorder Take 2
Living outside the 'Normitory" (away from Dreamland (everybody's asleep), to where Nessun Dorma (nobody sleeps))
It so happens that an ethnic group which originated in eastern Mediterranean Middle-East evolved to specialize in intelligence, commerce, morally corrupt enterprises, and crime. Essential to their success was eugenic traditions that applied artificial selection to just those same specialties, which makes this ethnic group a formidable enemy. They have developed a very strong sense of in-groupness, and a vested interest in social construct studies. A unified collective is a more effective competitor than an inchoate population of diverse individuals.
This group has as ethnic traits: global dispersion (aka Diaspora), preference for urban environments (aka Cosmopolitan, or Globalist), covert inter-group rivalry (aka InfoWar), and deception (aka MOSSAD). This cosmopolitan group must operate covertly and deceptively, because those are effective tactics, and they are a small minority (2% of USA), therefore weak in the democratic sense.
Immoral Social Constructs enforced by 5th column subversives
wethefifth (political audio series)
serendipity: freethink
Another construct search, without gender reference
Is morality a social construct? If so, how can concepts such as 'good' exist? (note especially the links in top comment, to reddit posts)
"Good" can be understood as a variation of "Favor" as a direct experience (perception) of "like", rather than some idealized notion of an obvious social construct such as "greater good" (a theoretical derivation by interventionist actors-with-agendas trying to impose their own preferences upon others, IOW ideology hegemony pushers, for instance viz da wiz)
Cultural hegemony is the Chosen's mitzvah, that we all must go to Emerald City, land of Oz, where YHWH (impostor) rules.
Cultural hegemony
Concepts of Ideology, Hegemony, and Organic Intellectuals in Gramsci’s Marxism 1982
There is no universal morality. Morality is much like Beauty, in the mind of beholder (actor who holds to a specific moral code). Morality is a social construct, and varies between societies. (I think a fair definition of morality is a code of ethics which is community-specific.) For a society to sustain, it needs to be isolate from conflicting societies. If different societies, with different moralities must coexist, the natural tendency for actors in the same niche toward dominance will destroy or remake the subordinate societies, which reduces the conflicts.
Status Hierarchies: Do We Need Them? blog 2012 | psytd
a need for 'virtue signaling'? It's natural, and likely unavoidable, evidence pride displays.
Status Assignments: by birth (heredity) or merit (talent)?
Let's assume your morality values social effectiveness. The best path to that is to have talented persons dominant (meritocracy). Next we happen to know that talent is hereditary, but not perfectly so. Therefore birth (kinship, aka kingship) is only an indicator of talent, which is infrequent among low status groups, much higher among high status kinship groups. Thus we must conclude that awarding status by pedigree and family privilege is not the best way to effectiveness, but it often does work. What works best then, must be? a competitive system of merit-proving, with special attention to high-status families. (Helps if the natural tendency for snobbish repression is circumvented, for examples Han-style Civil Service Exams, and the Roman military promotion avenue, which occasionally led to top gun.)
Sustainable Competitive Advantages (aka moats): Network Effects 2019 | sEknα
Our Brain's Negative Bias 2003 | psytdA
Fear: it's the greatest (motivator) 2009 Owen Benjamin made a video about Fear over TIME 16 min.
Dominance Hierarchy employs FEAR to dominate
Dominance hierarchy | wkpd Social dominance theory | wkpd
scaring children is not ok, Sydney Watson blog 11 min
tools for social mobility and dominance (list)
9 Important Factors That Influence Social Mobility Social dominance orientation | wkpd SDO should theoretically be highly important to Jews, as their ethos tends strongly to emulate it among themselves and denigrate it towards outgroups (Goyim). Thus we should expect to see this field of study monopolized by Jewish scholars. Studying the Gentile: Fanciful Pseudoscience in the Service of Pathologizing the Covington Boys | OO
Contracting the Social Construct Disorder Take 3
Different day from Take 2. Re-consider interactions with a community or society: traditionally occurred locally, on Sunday meetings at church, parties, having a beer after work, town hall or children's group meetings, (eg. PTA, scouts) etc.
Re-consider "contracting". Original idea was meant to acquire, like a disease, not by design (choice), but determined by contingency (unlucky chance). Today, "contracting" means getting smaller, shrinking, like a cooling branding iron, or melting ice. Iron has several crystalline phases, the cooler, the more compact (more atomic order). Ice is contrary to most materials, as its crystalline structure is larger than its liquid phase, so as it melts (entropy always increases, going to less ordered) its atoms become more fluid. In both cases, the natural mode of change is toward ambient temperature. This trend (recursion to the mean) is maybe the most unbroken law of all physics.
Re-considering "Disorder"; original idea was meant as a mental disease, like ADHD (Attention Deficit Hyperactive Disorder), IOW anomalous condition, out-of-order, (order being assumed normal) in the human behavior dimension. Today it means individuals out-of-line, like discontinuities in a crystal. (Discontinuities are what make metal harder.)
When all the atoms of a metal are aligned (continuous), the state is called "annealed". This is the softest condition. When the metal has been "work hardened" by hammering, or forging, it acquires discontinuities (crystalline order becomes mucked up). This is a harder state. Hardness is measured by forcing a small ball into a test material and measuring the resulting depression (dent). Discontinuities resist dents and every other kind of deforming force (decreased plasticity (weakness) means increased elasticity and maximum yield (resilience, see Young's Modulus, Indentation hardness, Impact Toughness and Moh's Hardness)).
Now make analogy of metal with society. Non-conformist individuals (like followers of Marginotions) make society (if he-he-heeded) more resistant to outside forces (like George Soros, or seekers of Tikkun Olam) trying to make a dent in the established order (tradition, Protestant Ethic).
Contracting the Social Construct Disorder Take 4
Different day Re-consider "contracting" again. Today, it means make-a-deal, as in commercial contract. This kind of contract is in flux nowadays, as the advent of bitcoin has introduced a mathematical means of authorizing legal agreements (aka contracts) in a distributed ledger that makes such agreements social in a very direct sense. The social part of "social construct" is present in a world wide network of participating computer operators, while the construct part is present in a software package (app) that is now called "smart", meaning has built-in security and ongoing timely operations, like confirmation checking. In this contract-paradigm, the "disorder" part is due to it being outside of previous power-holding elites who are chagrined by the prospect of losing some of their powers to the Internetwork, which is out of their control. IOW disorder for elites, and made-to-order for independents. (note on that quote)
Social Contract per britannica (briefly) per wkpd
explicit vs implicit contracts Differences Between Implicit & Explicit Agreements (law) 2017 more specific, social contracts Social Contract Theory UT (includes videos, glossary)
to be continued: fairness is a social construct (contrast with deterministic fate)
study notes (all 3 parts, this series)
Gentrification, Displacement and the Role of Public Investment: A Literature Review 2015 pdf
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Owen+Benjamin+made+video+about+Fear&atb=v81-4__&ia=videos
why is 'social construct' a popular theme?
https://www.success.com/8-daily-habits-to-build-your-mental-strength/
Pareto principle implications for marital harmony, a very brief summary of research by J Cacioppo)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_culture
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_society
https://thejewishwars.blogspot.com/2019/03/aipac-traitor-jews-having-successfully.html
https://theevilofzionismexposedbyjews.weebly.com/14-what-zionist-and-anti-zionist-jews-have-said-about-education.html
submitted by acloudrift to AlternativeHypothesis [link] [comments]

An example of a high profile CSW shill /u/sharklaserrrrr [Arian Kuqi co-founder cryptonize.it] dishonest behavior - he lies 3x in a row and when called out for proof, he runs away with: "I actually have work to do"

It is important to expose lies, especially such blatant and clear cut ones such as this one, whenever or whoever makes them. This is even more important when a relatively high profile figure spreads lies because lies are what lead to hijacking of BTC, we need to expose them early to prevent the same fate for BCH.
It is also important because the same modus operandi is employed by all of the astroturfers, be it CSW shills or any other kinds of shills. It's important to recognize.
The lies that Ari told were in response to this thread where it is proven that the following passage was plagiarized from planetmath.org verbatim by CSW in his "Beyond Godel" paper where he purports to show that Bitcoin is Turing complete:
Starting from the simplest primitive recursive functions, we can build more complicated primitive recursive functions by functional composition and primitive recursion. In this entry, we have listed some basic examples using functional composition alone. In this entry, we list more basic examples, allowing the use of primitive recursion:
Ari replies:
The source is from planetmath.org, and they explicitly state on their home page that ’The entries are contributed under the terms of the Creative Commons By/Share-Alike License’ and the license itself states:
You are free to: Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format.
Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
Right from the get go he is dishonest because the issue is plagiarism, which is completely different than copyright, but even on that point he is wrong because the license requires attribution so CSW is in breach of both:
When this is pointed out to Ari is where the ugly lies commence. He points to Kleene, S., (1952) “Introduction to Metamathematics” as the original source of the claim, accusing planetmath.org of the actual plagiarism - this is a blatant lie, there are 0 results when you search for "In this entry" in that book
And when this is pointed out to him, he runs away with a weak excuse as any common troll ever:
I actually have work to do so if you don’t mind, do your own research
So he told 3 lies in total, all were refuted and then he has "work to do" when called to account.
And while I appreciate his early contributions to BCH ecosystem, spreading lies and then running away as if nothing happened should not be acceptable, anyone doing that should be held accountable for such behavior, this is important for BCH long term success.
Edit:
In case anyone wonders, he revealed his name on reddit himslef, it's public knowledge so no "doxxing", he also has his name on a public Twitter profile
Also, just in case, archived exchange
Edit2: Summary of the lies:
The source is from planetmath.org, and they explicitly state on their home page that ’The entries are contributed under the terms of the Creative Commons By/Share-Alike License’ and the license itself states
This is a lie because that license requires attribution which CSW did not fulfill, he's in breach of that license.
Kleene, S., (1952) “Introduction to Metamathematics”. The source is in Craig’s references, Planetmath did not reference correctly.
This is a lie because that book does NOT contain that passage, it's only present on the planetmath.org website. And you know this per your first lie where you concede that "The source is from planetmath.org"
Your OP says he plagiarized; that’s a legal term and has nothing to do with integrity.
This is a double-lie because it's actually the exact opposite as a rudimentary google search (or common sense) reveals:
Plagiarism
Plagiarism is not in itself a crime, but can constitute copyright infringement. In academia and industry, it is a serious ethical offense.
In this case it's both, a copyright infringement AND plagiarism e.g. serious ethical offense
submitted by mushner to btc [link] [comments]

AsicBoost and the strange case of CVE-2017-9230

About CVEs

In the public interest of tracking and remedying cybersecurity vulnerabilities quickly, a public database was created in 2000: the CVE List [1].
CVE stands for Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures. Its database records, known as CVEs, track and record publicly known cybersecurity vulnerabilities. Each recorded vulnerability has a unique ID and lifecycle where it follows certain states.

The AsicBoost controversy

In April 2017, Greg Maxwell published an email [2] on the bitcoin-dev mailing list which described AsicBoost - a patented optimization to the algorithm used in Bitcoin mining - as an attack on the Bitcoin protocol.
There was much contention [3] about whether AsicBoost constituted some kind of harmful exploit, or whether it was merely a technological innovation which enabled more efficient mining hardware (ASICs).
There were allegations, widely reported in media, that the patent served the interest of Bitmain [4]. The purported benefits of exploiting this patent as alleged by Core developers were contemporaneously disputed by other miners [5].

CVE-2017-9230 raised against AsicBoost

On 18 May 2017, Cameron Garnham posted to the bitcoin-dev list [6], urging for getting a CVE assigned to the perceived vulnerability.
On 24 May 2017, this CVE was created as CVE-2017-9230 [7]. It was simultaneously published under Bugtraq ID 'BID 98657' at [8].
The justification in the CVE stated that the AsicBoost method
'violates the security assumptions of (1) the choice of input, outside of the dedicated nonce area, fed into the Proof-of-Work function should not change its difficulty to evaluate and (2) every Proof-of-Work function execution should be independent.'
It seemed a plausible enough reasoning for the CVE to be assigned. It was entered in the list of Bitcoin-related CVE's at [9]. Detailed information on this particular CVE is still missing/incomplete on the wiki page, a year after the CVE was raised.

What happened since the CVE was raised

If you've followed along, you've learned that the CVE was raised to counter the exploitation of the AsicBoost method by miners.
Since then, however, a Core developer, BtcDrak, has been involved in the founding of a mining company, Halong Mining. Several online sources state his (part?) ownership of this company.
BtcDrak has put forward a proposal [10] which would enable the use of AsicBoost within the Bitcoin Core software (the dominant client software on the BTC network).
This proposal appears to directly contradict the CVE claims of how AsicBoost violates "security assumptions" of Bitcoin, and indeed does not address how it mitigates them, nor is CVE-2017-9230 referenced in any of its related documentation.
While the proposal's specification [11] and implementation [12] have not yet been formally accepted, the situation is that Halong has shipped mining equipment which is now actively employing AsicBoost [13,14] on the Bitcoin (BTC) network. There is even a website showing the blocks where AsicBoost was used [15].

Conflict of interest

There a clear conflict of interest in the actions of the Core developer BtcDrak. His actions as a Core developer appear to be furthering his company's interests and competitive advantage in the mining industry by exploiting a vulnerability of which he must have been keenly aware, having participated on the same bitcoin-dev mailing list where it was discussed.
The CVE was vociferously used to paint Bitmain as culpable for delaying Segwit (Bitmain was accused of using AsicBoost and blocking Segwit activation for their own profit motive - claims that Bitmain has publicly denied strongly and which were never substantiated).
One might have expected a similar outcry against Halong's proven and announced use of AsicBoost, but the parties that had previously condemned Bitmain remained mostly silent. Only an anonymous non-developer, Cobra-Bitcoin, co-owner of the bitcoin.org domain, spoke out on the Github pull request in [11], and Core developer Luke-jr spoke out against the use of the proposal on the Bitcoin network while consensus had not been reached on it [16].
Subsequent discussion on the bitcoin-dev list on this topic since March has been minimal and only concerned with technicalities of stratum protocol changes.

The bigger elephant in the room

It seems logical that either AsicBoost constitutes an exploitable weakness, and thus merits a CVE and measures taken to prevent its use on the Bitcoin network entirely.
Or it is not a problem and the CVE should be invalidated.
The Bitcoin Core project should use its consensus processes to arrive at a coherent decision.

Other problems raised by the use of overt AsicBoost

The Halong implementation uses version rolling of the nversion bits of the header. It reserves a subset of those bits for overt AsicBoost.
These bits are no longer available to BIP9, but there was no update of BIP9 proposed to address this impact.
This is a question of sensible procedures being followed (or not). The author did not find any review comment mentioning the lack of BIP9 specification update, which suggest a lack of thorough review on a proposal which dates back several months.
A minor issue is that the Core implementation warns when a certain proportion of unrecognized version bits are detected. This behavior can be triggered by the AsicBoost method used on the network.
[1] https://cve.mitre.org/about/history.html
[2] https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2017-April/013996.html
[3] https://news.bitcoin.com/developers-clash-exploit-secret-core-organization/
[4] https://archive.is/q2Q4t
[5] https://medium.com/@vcorem/the-real-savings-from-asicboost-to-bitmaintech-ff265c2d305b
[6] https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2017-May/014349.html
[7] https://cve.mitre.org/cgi-bin/cvename.cgi?name=CVE-2017-9230
[8] https://www.securityfocus.com/bid/98657
[9] https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Common_Vulnerabilities_and_Exposures
[10] https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2018-March/015801.html
[11] https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/pull/661
[12] https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/12633
[13] https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/halong-mining-first-bitcoin-mining-hardware-producer-implement-overt-asicboost/
[14] https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/slush-pool-now-compatible-asicboost-miners/
[15] https://asicboost.dance
[16] https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2018-March/015802.html
EDITS:
  1. make dates unambiguous, make it clear that [5] disputes the benefits alleged by Core developers
submitted by btcfork to btc [link] [comments]

Terve - This week's language of the week: Finnish!

Finnish (suomi, or suomen kieli [ˈsuomen ˈkieli]) is a Finnic language spoken by the majority of the population in Finland and by ethnic Finns outside Finland. It is one of the two official languages of Finland and an official minority language in Sweden. In Sweden, both standard Finnish and Meänkieli, a Finnish dialect, are spoken. The Kven language, a dialect of Finnish, is spoken in Northern Norway by a minority group of Finnish descent.

Linguistics

Classification
Finnish's full classification (using an agnostic approach that assumes all branches are distinct, since Finno-Urgic having been challenged and abandoned by Ethnologue) is as follows:
Uralic (Proto-Uralic) > Finnic (Proto-Finnic) > Finnish
Phonology and Phonotactics
Standard Finnish has 8 vowels and 18 diphthongs. Vowels are contrasted based on length, with both long and short vowels existing. These contrasts occur in both stressed and unstressed syllables, though long vowels tend to be more common in short syllables. There is almost no allophony between among the Finnish vowels.
Finnish has 13 consonant sounds, and, like the vowels, these too can be short or long (gemination), with these being phonemic. Independent consonant clusters are not allowed in native words, except for a small set of two-consonant syllable codas, e.g. 'rs' in karsta. However, because of a number of recently adopted loanwords using them, e.g. strutsi from Swedish struts, meaning "ostrich", Finnish speakers can pronounce them, even if it is somewhat awkward.
The main stress is always on the first syllable. Stress does not cause any measurable modifications in vowel quality (very much unlike English). However, stress is not strong and words appear evenly stressed. In some cases, stress is so weak that the highest points of volume, pitch and other indicators of "articulation intensity" are not on the first syllable, although native speakers recognize the first syllable as a stressed syllable.
Finnish has several morphophonological processes that require modification of the forms of words for daily speech. The most important processes are vowel harmony and consonant gradation.
Vowel harmony is a redundancy feature, which means that the feature [±back] is uniform within a word, and so it is necessary to interpret it only once for a given word. It is meaning-distinguishing in the initial syllable, and suffixes follow; so, if the listener hears [±back] in any part of the word, they can derive [±back] for the initial syllable. For example, from the stem tuote ("product") one derives tuotteeseensa ("into his product"), where the final vowel becomes the back vowel 'a' (rather than the front vowel 'ä') because the initial syllable contains the back vowels 'uo'. This is especially notable because vowels 'a' and 'ä' are different, meaning-distinguishing phonemes, not interchangeable or allophonic. Finnish front vowels are not umlauts.
Consonant gradation is a partly nonproductive lenition process for P, T and K in inherited vocabulary, with the oblique stem "weakened" from the nominative stem, or vice versa. For example, tarkka "precise" has the oblique stem tarka-, as in tarkan "of the precise". There is also another gradation pattern, which is older, and causes simple elision of T and K in suffixes. However, it is very common since it is found in the partitive case marker: if V is a single vowel, V+ta → Va, e.g. *tarkka+ta → tarkkaa.
Finnish syllable structure can be classified as (C)V(S)(C) where (S) stands for 'segment', either a consonant or a phoneme. There are some rare syllables that break these general rules, but the basic syllable type given above constitute well over 90% of the words.
Grammar
Finnish is an agglutinative language. Finnish word order is fairly free, though a general tendency towards subject-verb-object does exist. However, this is often overridden by the fact that the topic of the conversation comes first (if talking about a man that was bitten by a dog, the word for man would come first).
Neither Finnish nouns nor pronouns decline for gender. There is also no article in the language. However, Finnish does distinguish 15 (16 in some dialects) noun cases. There are four grammatical cases (nominative, genitive, accusative and partitive), six locative cases (inessive, elative, illative, adessive, ablative, allative), two (three in some dialects) essive cases (essive and translative) and three 'marginal cases' (instructive, abessive and comitative).
Finnish has 7 pronouns, distinguishing three persons and two numbers (singular and plural), but no gender distinction in the third person. The seventh pronoun is a formal 2nd person. While the first and second person pronouns are generally dropped in Standard Finnish, they are common in colloquial speech; third person is required in both standard and colloquial Finnish. The third person pronouns, hän and he are often replaced with se and ne (singular and plural, respectively) in colloquial speech.
Finnish adjectives share the inflection paradigms of Finnish nouns and must agree with the noun in both number and case. Adverbs are generally formed by adding the suffix -sti to the inflecting form of the corresponding adjectives. Outside of this derivational process, they are not inflected.
Being a case rich language, Finnish has few post- or prepositions. However, what few it has tend to be postpositions. When the postposition governs a noun, the noun takes the genitive case. Likewise, a postposition can take a possessive suffix to express persons. Prepositions tend to take nouns in the partitive case.
Finnish has six conjugation classes; even though each class takes the same personal endings, the stems take different suffixes and change slightly when the verb is conjugated. Finnish has very few irregular verbs, and even some of those are irregular only in certain persons, moods, tenses, etc.
Finnish verbs can conjugate for four tenses: non-past, historically called the present, which can express the present or the future; preterite, historically called the imperfect, which covers English past simple and past continuous; perfect, which corresponds to the English present perfect; plusperfect, which corresponds to the English past perfect.
Finnish verbs can also conjugate for two voices, the active and the passive. The Finnish passive is unipersonal, that is, it only appears in one form regardless of who is understood to be performing the action. In that respect, it could be described as a "fourth person", since there is no (standard) way of connecting the action performed with a particular agent.
Finnish verbs conjugate for five different moods. These are the indicative, the conditional, the imperative (split into several types), the optative and the potential. A sixth mood, the eventitive, is no longer used in Finnish, but is the mood used in the Finnish epic poem Kalevala.
Finnish infinitives can come in four, sometimes analyzed as five, different groups. The first one is the citation form of the infinitive and corresponds to the English 'to X' infinitive use. The second infinitive is used to express aspects of actions relating to the time when an action takes place or the manner in which an action happens. In equivalent English phrases these time aspects can often be expressed using 'when', 'while' or 'whilst' and the manner aspects using the word 'by' or else the gerund, which is formed by adding "ing" to English verb to express manner. The third infinitive corresponds to the English gerund while the fourth and the fifth, both of which are rare in Finnish today, mark obligation and 'just about to...' respectively.
Miscellany

Samples

Spoken sample:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFCixLn9qRw (Lullaby)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejIdIKidqcc (folk song)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCEw4uH2a8I&list=PLL92dfFL9ZdJBbTpg-h9AMnZfxNlHwrbh (Playlist of songs popular in Finland currently)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vYH1JH73pw (Finnish newscast on Bitcoin)
Written sample:
Vaka vanha Väinämöinen itse tuon sanoiksi virkki: "Näistäpä toki tulisi kalanluinen kanteloinen, kun oisi osoajata, soiton luisen laatijata." Kun ei toista tullutkana, ei ollut osoajata, soiton luisen laatijata, vaka vanha Väinämöinen itse loihe laatijaksi, tekijäksi teentelihe.
(Verses 221-232 of song 40 of the Kalevala) Audio here
Kaikki ihmiset syntyvät vapaina ja tasavertaisina arvoltaan ja oikeuksiltaan. Heille on annettu järki ja omatunto, ja heidän on toimittava toisiaan kohtaan veljeyden hengessä.
(Article 1 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights)

Sources

Further Reading

Previous LotWs

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submitted by galaxyrocker to languagelearning [link] [comments]

AsicBoost and the strange case of CVE-2017-9230

About CVEs

In the public interest of tracking and remedying cybersecurity vulnerabilities quickly, a public database was created in 2000: the CVE List [1].
CVE stands for Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures. Its database records, known as CVEs, track and record publicly known cybersecurity vulnerabilities. Each recorded vulnerability has a unique ID and lifecycle where it follows certain states.

The AsicBoost controversy

In April 2017, Greg Maxwell published an email [2] on the bitcoin-dev mailing list which described AsicBoost - a patented optimization to the algorithm used in Bitcoin mining - as an attack on the Bitcoin protocol.
There was much contention [3] about whether AsicBoost constituted some kind of harmful exploit, or whether it was merely a technological innovation which enabled more efficient mining hardware (ASICs).
There were allegations, widely reported in media, that the patent served the interest of Bitmain [4]. The purported benefits of exploiting this patent as alleged by Core developers were contemporaneously disputed by other miners [5].

CVE-2017-9230 raised against AsicBoost

On 18 May 2017, Cameron Garnham posted to the bitcoin-dev list [6], urging for getting a CVE assigned to the perceived vulnerability.
On 24 May 2017, this CVE was created as CVE-2017-9230 [7]. It was simultaneously published under Bugtraq ID 'BID 98657' at [8].
The justification in the CVE stated that the AsicBoost method
'violates the security assumptions of (1) the choice of input, outside of the dedicated nonce area, fed into the Proof-of-Work function should not change its difficulty to evaluate and (2) every Proof-of-Work function execution should be independent.'
It seemed a plausible enough reasoning for the CVE to be assigned. It was entered in the list of Bitcoin-related CVE's at [9]. Detailed information on this particular CVE is still missing/incomplete on the wiki page, a year after the CVE was raised.

What happened since the CVE was raised

If you've followed along, you've learned that the CVE was raised to counter the exploitation of the AsicBoost method by miners.
Since then, however, a Core developer, BtcDrak, has been involved in the founding of a mining company, Halong Mining. Several online sources state his (part?) ownership of this company.
BtcDrak has put forward a proposal [10] which would enable the use of AsicBoost within the Bitcoin Core software (the dominant client software on the BTC network).
This proposal appears to directly contradict the CVE claims of how AsicBoost violates "security assumptions" of Bitcoin, and indeed does not address how it mitigates them, nor is CVE-2017-9230 referenced in any of its related documentation.
While the proposal's specification [11] and implementation [12] have not yet been formally accepted, the situation is that Halong has shipped mining equipment which is now actively employing AsicBoost [13,14] on the Bitcoin (BTC) network. There is even a website showing the blocks where AsicBoost was used [15].

Conflict of interest

There a clear conflict of interest in the actions of the Core developer BtcDrak. His actions as a Core developer appear to be furthering his company's interests and competitive advantage in the mining industry by exploiting a vulnerability of which he must have been keenly aware, having participated on the same bitcoin-dev mailing list where it was discussed.
The CVE was vociferously used to paint Bitmain as culpable for delaying Segwit (Bitmain was accused of using AsicBoost and blocking Segwit activation for their own profit motive - claims that Bitmain has publicly denied strongly and which were never substantiated).
One might have expected a similar outcry against Halong's proven and announced use of AsicBoost, but the parties that had previously condemned Bitmain remained mostly silent. Only an anonymous non-developer, Cobra-Bitcoin, co-owner of the bitcoin.org domain, spoke out on the Github pull request in [11], and Core developer Luke-jr spoke out against the use of the proposal on the Bitcoin network while consensus had not been reached on it [16].
Subsequent discussion on the bitcoin-dev list on this topic since March has been minimal and only concerned with technicalities of stratum protocol changes.

The bigger elephant in the room

It seems logical that either AsicBoost constitutes an exploitable weakness, and thus merits a CVE and measures taken to prevent its use on the Bitcoin network entirely.
Or it is not a problem and the CVE should be invalidated.
The Bitcoin Core project should use its consensus processes to arrive at a coherent decision.

Other problems raised by the use of overt AsicBoost

The Halong implementation uses version rolling of the nversion bits of the header. It reserves a subset of those bits for overt AsicBoost.
These bits are no longer available to BIP9, but there was no update of BIP9 proposed to address this impact.
This is a question of sensible procedures being followed (or not). The author did not find any review comment mentioning the lack of BIP9 specification update, which suggest a lack of thorough review on a proposal which dates back several months.
A minor issue is that the Core implementation warns when a certain proportion of unrecognized version bits are detected. This behavior can be triggered by the AsicBoost method used on the network.
[1] https://cve.mitre.org/about/history.html
[2] https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2017-April/013996.html
[3] https://news.bitcoin.com/developers-clash-exploit-secret-core-organization/
[4] https://archive.is/q2Q4t
[5] https://medium.com/@vcorem/the-real-savings-from-asicboost-to-bitmaintech-ff265c2d305b
[6] https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2017-May/014349.html
[7] https://cve.mitre.org/cgi-bin/cvename.cgi?name=CVE-2017-9230
[8] https://www.securityfocus.com/bid/98657
[9] https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Common_Vulnerabilities_and_Exposures
[10] https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2018-March/015801.html
[11] https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/pull/661
[12] https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/12633
[13] https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/halong-mining-first-bitcoin-mining-hardware-producer-implement-overt-asicboost/
[14] https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/slush-pool-now-compatible-asicboost-miners/
[15] https://asicboost.dance
[16] https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2018-March/015802.html
EDITS:
  1. make dates unambiguous, make it clear that [5] disputes the benefits alleged by Core developers
submitted by zcc0nonA to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Doug Kass' 15 Surprises For 2019

Authored by Dog Kass via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
White House Politics:
(When asked what he wanted to give thanks for during a press gaggle Thanksgiving Thursday, Trump responded), “_for having a great family and for having made a tremendous difference in this country. I’ve made a tremendous difference in the country. This country is so much stronger now than it was when I took office that you wouldn’t believe it… And I mean, you see, but so much stronger people can’t even believe it. When I see foreign leaders they say we cannot believe the difference in strength between the United States now and the United States two years ago.” _– President Trump (Comments on Thanksgiving)
Policy:
_“You only think I guessed wrong! … You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders – the most famous of which is “never get involved in a land war in Asia” – but only slightly less well-known is this: Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!” _– Vizzini,The Princess Bride
The Economy:
“The missing step in the standard Keynesian theory (is) the explicit consideration of capitalist finance within a cyclical and speculative context… finance sets the pace for the economy. As recovery approaches full employment… soothsayers will proclaim that the business cycle has been banished (and) debts can be taken on. But in truth neither the boom nor the debt deflation… and certainly not a recovery can go on forever. Each state nurtures forces that lead to its own destruction.” _–_ Hyman Minsky
The Markets:
“Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.” __Seneca the Elder
Contrary to the expectations of many (including myself), the uncertainties following the surprising Trump presidential election victory, which produced a number of possible outcomes (some of them adverse), was enthusiastically embraced by investors in 2017 and in the first month of this year. A market on steroids was not a conclusion or forecast by any mainstream Wall Street forecaster that year. There was no sell side strategist who expected equities would rise anywhere near the 20%+ gains in the major indices recorded in 2017, nor do I know any who predicted that the S&P Index would make more than 70 individual highs a year ago.
As I expected, that enthusiasm continued in and through most of the month of January, 2018. But, after a year of historically low volatility and ever-rising stock prices, the bullish consensus became troubled as the complexion of the market changed throughout most of 2018 .
As I noted in last year’s commentary, I thought that the biggest surprise in 2018 would be that extrapolation of the market uptrend didn’t work after many years of working, and that we will witness the emergence of multiple non-consensus developments, including:
Warren Buffett once observed that a bull market_ “is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.'” _While some of us in the ursine crowd debate whether the investment orgasm has already passed, in the extreme it finally may be Minsky’s Moment and year after nine years of recovery and prosperity following _The Great Recession._This year I have decided to publish my _“Surprise List”_ a bit earlier than usual.
As you all know, my Surprises are what I term to be _Probable Improbables_ – events that have a greater possibility of occurring than are seen by the consensus. I try to make you think apart from that diabolically dangerous_ “Group Stink”_ and, particularly as it relates to politics (but with other subjects as well), I feel that I should offend you at least once, or I am not doing my job. But, any offense is meant in the spirit of the great Romantic poet William Blake who taught us that “_Opposition is true friendship._”
My Surprises are shorter in length than in previous years. _(I want to quickly get to the important points of the Surprise List – available on one or two pages – rather than deliver a more flowery prose and bunch of stories that I have commonly done in the past)._We will start the new investment year about one month from now with a completely different _“feeling”_ of previous years – as I mentioned previously, the complexion of Mr. Market seems to have changed:
The core themes and roadmap for 2019 is that a standard run-of-the-mill Bear Market may run into something bigger in a year enveloped in unprecedented political turmoil (and electorate disgust and anger), an escalating trade (and cold) war with China and continuing global economic disappointments — dragging down a mature, an extended and fully exploited economic growth and market cycle.
Not surprisingly, my Surprise is that a slightly down year of performance for the S&P Index in 2018 may turn out to be something worse in 2019.
But the biggest and most provocative surprise is the decline and fall of President Trump in 2019 – in which an anti-imperial rebalancing is successfully mounted by a more assertive Congress, bringing the country back into constitutional equilibrium.
Without further fuss, here are my outside of consensus 15 Surprises for 2019:
1) A U.S. Recession in 2019 Followed by Stagflation:
We learn, in 2019, the extent to which economic activity was pulled forward by the protracted period of historically low interest rates – as capital spending, retail sales, housing and autos founder further.
With U.S. Real GDP growth dropping to +1% to +2% in the first half of 2019, inflation remaining stubbornly high (especially of a wage-kind as the labor market remains tight) and with cost pressures unable to be passed on, the threat of recession intensifies.
By the third quarter of 2019 U.S. Real GDP turns negative. Tax collections collapse as government spending continues to rise. The budget deficit forecasts are lifted to over $2 trillion.
The U.S. falls into a recession in the last half of 2019 – followed by a lengthy period of stagnating economic growth and higher inflation (stagflation).
A dysfunctional, non-unified and discombobulated Europe also falls into a recession in 2019 – with significant ramifications for U.S. multinationals that populate the S&P Index.
U.S./Chinese trade tensions push the global economy down the hill as the year progresses and GDP growth in China comes in below +5.0%. The IMF reduces it’s global economic growth forecast three times next year.
S&P per share earnings fall by over -10% in 2019.
2) The Federal Reserve Pauses and Then Cuts as Currencies and Interest Rates Swing Wildly:
It’s a wild year for fixed income and currency volatility.
The Fed cuts rates in 3Q2019 and by year-end announces that QE4 will commence in January, 2020.
The 2018 tantrum in Italian bonds is just a precursor for hissy fits throughout the European bond market as the ECB is no longer expanding its balance sheet and tries to get out of NIRP.
The BoJ throws in the towel on their drive for higher inflation. The Japanese bond market sees sharp selloff.
During 2019 the yield on the ten year U.S. note falls to 2.25% before ending the year at over 3.50% as the selloff in European and Japanese bonds and the announcement of QE4 drive our yields higher. Gold falls to $1050 before ending the year at over $1700.
3) Stocks Sink:
Though the third year of a Presidential cycle is usually bullish – _it’s different this time._Trump confusing _brains with a bull market_ can’t fathom the emerging Bear Market. At first he blames it on Steve Mnuchin, his Secretary of Treasury (who leaves the Administration in the middle of the year). Then he blames a lower stock market on the mid-term election which turned the House. Then he blames the market correction on the Chinese.
The S&P Index hits a yearly low of 2200 in the first half of the year as the market worries about slowing economic and profit growth and a burgeoning deficit/monetization. The announcement of QE4 results in a year end rally in December, 2019. In a continued regime of volatility (and in a market dominated by ETFs and machines/algos), daily swings of 1%-3% become more commonplace. Investor sentiment slumps as redemptions from exchange traded funds grow to record levels. The absence of correlation between ETFs and the underlying component investments causes regulatory concerns throughout the year.
Congress holds hearings on the changing market structure and the weak foundation those changes delivered during the year.
Short sellers provide the best returns in the hedge fund space as the S&P Index records a second consecutive yearly loss (which is much deeper than in 2018).
As the Fed cuts interest rates the US dollar falls and emerging markets outperform the US in 2019.
I, like many, are concerned about corporate credit (See Surprise #8) and though credit is not unscathed, it is equities that bear the brunt of the Bear since they are below credit in the company capitalization structure.
Bottom line, after a steep drop in the first six months of the year, the markets rise off of the lows late in the year in response to this shifting political scene (the decline of Trump) and a reversal to a more expansive Fed policy – ending the year with a -10% loss.
4) Despite the Appearance of the Bear, FANG Stocks Surprisingly Prosper (Both Absolutely and Relatively) as Investors Seek Growth (at any cost) In a Slowing Economy – Facebook’s Shares Rebound Dramatically:
While there is a growing consensus that FANG will lead a Bear Market lower – that is not the case as growth, in a general sense, is dear and cherished by market participants next year. Among FANG, Facebook‘s shares have a reversal of fortune (and is the best performing FANG stock) as the company announces aggressive management changes and moves to remedy the misinformation trap.
As more previously unrevealed information reduces her valuation, Sheryl Sandburg’s special status as a female leader (in a seascape of men at Facebook and in industry) is questioned. In the first half of 2019, Sandberg becomes a sacrificial lamb and is sacked – and is forced to lean out after leaning in.
At the suggestion of Warren Buffett (who has accumulated a sizable stake in the company), former Board Member Donald Graham is named as the new, independent and Non-Executive Board Chairman of Facebook.
This unexpected move encourages FB investors to believe that the company is quickly moving to fix its multiple data and privacy issues.
Fewer (than feared) Facebook members opt out and growth in usage resumes in the back half of 2019.
FB’s stock popularity (and market capitalization) increases as it becomes a more dominant holding in “value investors” portfolios – the shares trade above $200/share late in the year.
5) “Peak Trump” – the President Bows Out in His Pursuit of a Second Term:
The President’s dismissal of the murder of Washington Post reporter Jamal Khashoggi is seen as delivering tacit support to Saudi Arabia’s MBS – it is a pivotal turning point in Trump’s popularity and ultimate reputational decline in 2019. _“Pay enough and you can get away with murder”_ becomes the mantra of the Progressive Left. Trump acceptance by his Republican party peers quickly diminishes as they are further worried about his motivation to side against the findings of his own intelligence department. After Trump’s personal dealings with authoritarian and autocratic countries are revealed in the Mueller probe (along with possible emoluments violations), Trump’s popularity fades further as Lindsay Graham and other prominent Republicans repeal their support and denounce the President.
An anti-imperial rebalancing is mounted, in which a more assertive Congress brings the country back into constitutional equilibrium.
Though the public and political leaders (even on the right)_ increasingly reject the President, there are no impeachment efforts by the Democrats. Instead (and surprisingly), House Speaker Pelosi (recognizing that constructive steps are the recipe for a Democratic 2020 Presidential win) exacts discretion and stops the Democrats from moving on an impeachment in the House. Democratic leadership turns to reforms and a torrent of new legislation in the areas of improving the environment and climate control (and the halt of growth in fossil fuel by the development of alternative energy programs), the opioid crisis, education, crime, voting rights, healthcare and prescription drug prices, immigration, etc.- showing the electorate that their Party can demonstrate the framework for a positive agenda, a vision and a social contract (and can rule instead of obstruct).But, most importantly… With real GDP turning negative in 2019’s second half, Democrats attempt to replace Republicans’ supply-side economics with a smarter theory of growth. Recognizing just as inflation and other ills opened the door for criticism of Keynesian economics in the 1970s, so have inequality and disinvestment done the same for critiques of supply side today. In 2019, the Democrats turn the table on the supply-siders and give a voice through thoughtful proposed legislation (making the affirmative case for the Democratic theory of growth geared to raising wages and putting more money in the hands in working- and middle-class people’s pocket and investing in their needs). Americans enthusiastically embrace this alternative (of how the economy works and grows and spreads prosperity) and reject and defeat the long standing Republican economic narrative – seeing it as a better way to spur on the economy_ (than giving rich people more tax cuts)._ Asking the question _“has it worked for you?_” and given the fairy tale of added revenue from growth (and the widening hole in the deficit),_ rampant inequality, the fear of being bankrupted by medical catastrophe and massive student debt obligations Democrats provide a practical alternative to cutting taxes for the rich and decreasing regulation which has failed to unleash as much innovation and economic activity that was promised by the Administration. The legislation, which puts more money in middle class pockets, defends and supports the notion that the public sector can make better decisions than the private sector. Referred to as the _“middle – in economic bill,”_ is cosponsored by a leading, conservative and respected Republican member of Congress and begins to gain bipartisan support in Congress, driving a stake through the supply-side’s heart.
Despite his loss of popularity (which plummets to 25%)_ and the push back from the Republican establishment, Trump declares he is still planning to run for President. Nevertheless, a challenge from Senator Mitt Romney (who’s motto is “Make Republicans Great Again”_) gains steam as McConnell, Graham, Kennedy Et al. throw their support for the Senator.
As Trump’s problems multiply, Romney becomes the heavy favorite to defeat Trump in the Republican primary.
Recognizing a sure election defeat, by year-end the President announces that his medical team has disclosed a health issue and he is advised not to run for office. _Reluctantly, _Trump agrees and bows out of the 2020 Presidential race late in the year.
The Trump mantra of “Make America Great Again” i_s replaced by _“Make Economic Uncertainty and Market Volatility Great Again.”#MAGA/#MUVGA
6) The Year of the Woman:
With a Trump withdrawal from 2020 the election is wide open.
The arc of history influences the Democratic Presidential nomination march and the leading candidates that emerge for 2020 are mostly women. The potential contenders include progressive firebrands like Elizabeth Warren, Stacey Abrams, Kristen Gillibrand and Kamala Harris, and moderates like Senator Amy Klobuchar and Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo.
Michael Bloomberg, Howard Schultz and Joe Biden bowout from the race by year end 2019 By year-end, Klobucher, Harris and Warren surface as the three leading Democratic Presidential candidates.
It appears that an all women Democratic ticket (President/Vice President) is increasingly likely.
Nationally, several high profile sexual harassment suits are disclosed. Allegations against a number of well known television, other entertainment and political icons/leaders serve to reinforce the candidacy of the above women who aspire to gain the Democratic Presidential nomination. After Congressional hearings, non partisan and strict harassment legislation are introduced forcing several well known male politicians to resign from office.
7) A New (But Old) Shiny Object Appears As A Stock Market Winner in 2019:
Bitcoin trades close to $3,000 in December, 2018 and spends most of 2019 under $5,000 (as numerous trading irregularities, thefts and more frauds are exposed).
England’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) takes the lead, in instituting a comprehensive regulatory response to regulating the crypto currency markets. The U.S. follows by imposing broad-based crypto currency regulation in 2019.
A leading business network (who’s bitcoin “bug” has become the new cover of magazine contrary indicator!) faces a class action suit for their seeming encouragement in buying into the asset class in their too frequent broadcasts during 2018. Several crypto currency guests who were prominent on the network’s coverage are indicted for fraud. In an agreement with regulatory authorities, the biz network’s programming is reconstituted.
Marijuana stocks, after a weak final few months in 2018 (are down by over 50% from their highs), explode back to the upside reflecting a quickened pace of alternative health applications. (MJ) is the single best performing exchange traded fund and (TLRY) makes another move to $300/share.
8) Private Equity, High Yield Debt and Leveraged Loan Problems (Which Have Doubled in Size Over the Last Ten Years) Emerge as the Resurgence of Leveraged Finance Comes to An End:
Private equity, in particular, the biggest winner in the decade long cycle since _The Great Decession of 2007-09,_ suffers – and so do the endowments at several prestigious universities. Covenant- lite financings in junk and leveraged loans – often in opaque and complex structures – topple under the weight of loan defaults. (HYG) (last sale: $83.17) trades $75-$80 as redemptions spike.
Publicly-held private equity shops (KKR) and Blackstone (BX) are among the largest percentages losers in 2019, High yield bonds fulfill their characterization as “junk,” and are among the worst performing asset classes. The spread between junk bonds and Treasuries more than doubles – widening dramatically during the summer months.
9) The China/U.S.Rift Intensifies as Trump’s Anger Shifts Towards That Region:
The trade war with China goes into full effect with 25% tariffs. Walmart (WMT) is adversely impacted and its shares fall by -20% from the recent highs. The Chinese retaliate against major American brands like Apple (AAPL) . _(“Peak Apple” actually happens and its shares fall below $125/share)._Peter Navarro resigns.
A major cyber-attack against the U.S. financial system, who’s source is initially not diagnosed, is ultimately reportedly to have been delivered by China. The U.S. enters a cold war with China that resembles the emergence of the cold war with Russia in 1948 – it becomes clear it will be lengthy, nasty and unfriendly to the trajectory of worldwide economic growth.
10) Bank Stocks Are Surprising Winners in 2019:
Despite some pressure in net interest margins (and income), sluggish loan demand and a pickup in loan losses – bank stocks (and EPS) are surprisingly resilient and manage to have a positive return next year as better relative EPS growth is supported by aggressive buybacks and (starting) low valuations. Investors look forward to a recovery in economic growth in 2020-21 and bank stocks (flat for most of the year) have a vigorous move in the last few months of the year and are one of the few sectors to advance in 2019.
Oil stocks, depressed from the late 2018 crude oil price fall also recovery mightily in the later months of 2019 as the price of oil advances coincident with dovish turn in monetary policy.
11) Tesla’s Problems Shift From Production to Demand to Financial:
Tesla (TSLA) loses its tax subsidy in the U.S. and in the Netherlands (a large market for them).
European competition grows.
Europe doesn’t allow the Tesla Model 3 due to safety reasons. The Chinese won’t let an American company have video data over millions of miles of roads and bans Tesla. Lenders balk and access to the public debt market evaporates. The company’s financial position deteriorates and its credit default swaps widen dramatically.
An accounting “issue” surfaces – and it morphs into an accounting fraud. Elon Musk, who has leveraged his TSLA equity holdings, faces margin calls and is forced to sell Tesla shares.
After being rushed to the hospital after an overdose, Musk leaves his CEO post to enter drug rehab.
12) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) Announces the Largest Takeover in History – The Transformational Acquisition of 3M for $150 billion.
13) Amazon (AMZN) Makes a Bid for Square (SQ) but Alphabet/Google (GOOGL) Eventually Acquires Both Square SQ and Twitter (TWTR)
14) With its Share Price Consistently Trading Under Its Book Value During the First Few Months of 2019, Goldman Sachs’ (GS) Partners Take the Brokerage Private in a Leveraged Buyout at $238/share.
15) Brexit Happens: The world continues and the pound is the best global currency.

Here Are 5-“Also Eligible” Surprises:

submitted by rotoreuters to zerohedge [link] [comments]

Transcript of George Webb Video Series Part 229 "Hillary's Leakers, Hackers, and Henchmen" [@Georgwebb / #HRCRatline]

  • Day 59.12. Turns McCabe Knew Christopher Steele From EurAsia Days - YouTube
    • It's day 59 this is version 11
    • So Thomas Paine's out with another article today yeah--what it turns out that Christopher Steele--the first time he met Andrew McCabe, it wasn't last year
    • No no it wasn't
    • {{ GOWDYMODE Activated }} As a matter of fact, goes way back way back
    • Before Andy McCabe, before Andy McCabe--(I got to do the Gowdy) before Andy McCabe ever cayme to DC!
    • Before I knew Trey Gowdy!
    • Right and where it was is these guys all started in Boston
    • They're all in this Whitey Bulger thing
    • All the these corrupt agents they go back to Silk Road
    • They moved down to EDNY which is through the eastern district--that's the Brooklyn
    • It became part of that hit team homies hit team and then they moved over to SDNY to be when Comey moved over to the Southern District to New York down in Manhattan became part of that hit team
    • If you know the reputation of Southern District of New York, it's called the Southern District of Anywhere or Everywhere
    • That's when you can start going and going after FIFA guys you can you can take on people all over the world
    • You can go to Malaysia and go after people that are laundering money they're laundering money in Indonesia, put out the Panama papers to extort some more, you know, contributions for Hillary, right?
    • And then Andrew McCabe comes to DC
    • Now guess what? What did he do that before that?
    • He was the Russian organized crime--he was Russian organized crime
    • Where was?
    • (Huh? with it yeah yeah we're gonna get there with)
    • So EURASIA
    • {{ Gowdymode }} The YOUR (EUR) part of that is McCaybe!
    • The EU part that you're part of it is McCabe
    • The Asia part of it is OHR--you get it? YOU/OHR Asia EURASIA -- YOU(EU)-OHR(RO) Asia
    • It's your Asia its McCabe's Asia its McCabe and OHR, McCabe and OHR, McCabe and OHR
    • That's when he was working the Russian Eurasia organized crime, whatever the heck that thing is called
    • Eurasia organized crime whatever
    • And guess who his counterpart was?
    • {{ Gowdy }} A real spy guess who did the real work, you come heyre, yeah
    • So the real work was done by Christopher Stevens and all the Russian
    • TP: Christopher Steele
    • Chrisopher Steel sorry and all the real Russian spies he got out of Russia
    • PAPERCLIP 2
    • Whoever said Paperclip 2?
    • And that's how that happened
    • So that's what made Annie McCabe because he had a real spy and a real Intelligence officers, not really Christopher Steele
    • Christopher Steele is more like a like a concierge, "hey are you Russian guys happy? Can we get you any more about gay vodka? Can we get you any more Ukrainian girls?"
    • "I mean here we are at the Sun Hotel, I mean the piano bar. I mean I can get anything for you?"
    • That's Christopher Steel
    • He he doesn't--but the guys he got the Alperovitz guys, and I'm not talking about Dmitri, Mr. McAfee that I used to work with
    • I'm talking about the older Alperovitz mchao macaé
    • There's a spy that guy's a spy Mikhail is a spy
    • So I'm giving your dad some props here Dmitri or is it Dmitri Dmitri is the son that's right yeah Dmitri
    • Mikhail though was we I worked at McAfee with you Dimitri
    • This reminds me of that fail-safe movie
    • Now I know Moscow blew up Dimitri, don't yell at me to me, Dimitry remember that?
    • So yeah So I worked with him there
    • They wrote the viruses they wrote the viruses at McAfee at the end of the quarter and they'd sell a whole bunch
    • And people get there--so the CEOs could finish out their books
    • That's how they did it. It was virus-vaccine only with computers
    • This is old I've been that was I want to say 1999
    • They ran me out of there
    • Look at look at the record--they ran me out of there
    • They did the honey trap
    • Well anyway we'll get there later
    • But this is Boston Silk Road boyZ
    • Look at the Bitcoin, moving down to EDNY
    • That's your base, before you can jump over to SDNY
    • And then they came to DC after that
    • And they didn't do a damn thing
    • They didn't lift a finger
    • Christopher Steel and really it's Alperovich
    • So I'm gonna give some props here as John Henry who runs CrowdStrike: you made a good hire
    • You're like McCabe you're like--Adrian Hawkins, "hey you guys got hacked again--I'll call you back next month right"
    • Remember Adrian Hawkins?
    • DCCC oh yeah we saw the hack we just couldn't make it down that three blocks or four blocks to go over Capitol Hill and down to DNC and down trees DCCC
    • Hey you guys you got hacked again, I just wanted you to know
    • That's not law enforcement
    • Low-light cameras is not law enforcement
    • Entrapment's not law enforcement
    • Compromise is not law enforcement
    • If you want to learn about being a spy, talk to you Dimitry
    • Dimitri Alperovitz
    • Talk to Dmitri Alperovich
  • Day 59.12. If Seth Rich Really Was Helping Hillary With Resources For the Future, Draddle Dancing W - YouTube
    • Well here we are at Ocean City Maryland, and all I can say is coming into Ocean City and looking at Ocean City is like I said
    • This is Atlantic City: it's the same city--with the boardwalk and everything
    • But not only that just I said there's got to be a Trump Casino here somewhere?
    • Just I'm looking for the Trump Casino
    • {{ To someone }} Is there a Trump Casino here? Is there a Trump Casino here?
    • No no no Trump Casino here
    • So yeah I know I don't I'm just joking I'm just saying it looks
    • So much like Atlantic City that I'm looking for a Trump Casino
    • So yeah there you have it
    • Well we now know that this is not this is not New Jersey
    • This is this is Maryland
    • This is where Joe Capone on the fourth night that I had talked to him, at Lou's Bar and Grill, he said the night Seth Rich was killed, "I was in Ocean City that night"
    • (There's the there's the roller coaster the obligatory roller coaster.
    • Was Seth Rich involved in the drug business?
    • Oh GOD. Tell me that ain't true
    • Was Molly McCauley given the NOAA business--NOAA data, that she received from the Navy?
    • Was she giving that over to Imran?
    • Oh boy I hope not
    • Resources for the Future
    • Well if NOAA wasn't giving out TWICs, to bring people in to the country
    • If they weren't bringing in Ukrainian girls here by the hundreds, I might feel differently
    • But one thing I've learned through this whole thing is ratlines tend to fuse
    • They tend to fuse
    • And they tend to fuse over the whole world
    • And I'll use the CNN or PPN code word for world GPS, they tend to fuse over a GPS
  • Day 59.13. TWICs the Left Off Of Me, Coast Guard To the Right, Stuck ion the Middle With Andrew - YouTube
    • What a long day 13 today oh and we're not even done
    • So I didn't I was the last one I'm gonna label comedy, because it's satire
    • But I'm just saying if you were satiring that's how you would come about a
    • So sometimes there's satire mixed in
    • So you have to ask me when I'm meeting satire and I have intent and what I don't
    • But anyway here we are this is the inlet in this is the inlet in Ocean City and I don't know much about no Ocean City
    • But I do know that that's the inlet and I got my TWIC
    • I just got my TWIC from NOAA got my TWIC
    • So I don't need a visa I got my TWIC
    • So and it's its TWICie its TWICie but once you get you TWIC you don't need a visa
    • So I'm a fisherman I got my TWIC fisherman got my TWIC
    • Now I'm working, fishing with a string in Pakistan
    • Indonesia Philippines wherever and somebody says, "well, you know, if you hang around you bring some stuff in, other than fish, you're gonna be a citizen--we're gonna give you a visa. You get you EB-5. Get you a big boat like that Coast Guard Cutter"
    • Going by right there I should be over there I should be over there well let's go over there
    • Let's go see the Coast Guard Cutter it's kind of fun it's not the Coast Guard Cutter
    • Somebody said, "it's not the Coast Guard Cutter"
    • Well look at that that's US Coast Guard
    • That's US Coast Guard let's go find the Coast Guard Cutter
    • Let's go look at him
    • But if I have the Coast Guard go that way, and my fishing pier over here and then my TWICers not TWICer TWEATERS
    • I'm just saying TWICers if TWICers go this way
    • That's how I would do it if I was running a ratline
    • Now this is all speculative
    • And you never know what's satire what isn't
    • But there's our Coast Guard--that's just a little branch office
    • I think there's a main office here that's a little bit bigger by the bus station the guy told me
    • I think I can see it almost across the way but there's some communication facilities there
    • It looks like like kind of a satellite office
    • Nice sunset here
    • Beautiful evening here. For December it's awesome
    • And I'm guessing those look like Coast Guard boats, guessing those look like Coast Guard boats
    • So I think you have a layout here
    • Those are our guys
    • Now again, as I say in all these ratlines--and if you don't think they're Coast Guard somebody can correct me--but you don't
    • All the people involved 99.9% of the people involved are fantastic people that care very much about their coasts
    • And drug interdiction and human trafficking and all that stuff
    • If you just have a few people at the top, a few codes, if I can get a few codes to a few people, I can run my ratline
    • That's what I'm saying
    • Satellites, NOAA is going to be part of this--I can tell already just from metadata
    • And these TWICs they're coming from NOAA
    • These codes that are coming from the Coast Guard
    • Those are going to be two key pieces
  • Day 59.14. DeFeBo Pizza- You Made It To Heaven. - YouTube
    • It's day 59 and I'm here at DeFebo's it's almost sounds like a slang for when you get defibrillated
    • But I don't need to fibrillation but Defebos is a beautiful Italian restaurant here in Berlin
    • Berliner beautiful restaurant Italian restaurant the pizza here you see that woodfire pizza back there
    • Task Force amazing definitely do that
    • Now, I did have a chance to interview the folks across the street at the Masons Lodge
    • And I wanted to learn and one of the gentlemen there's a 32nd degree Mason
    • And just how it works
    • And those blue lodges are like the first three levels it's kind of like their feeder program to the Scottish rates[sic] {{ Rites }}
    • And I knew that they were associated with the Shriners Hospitals
    • There's a Shriner Hospital in Portland Oregon there's a burn center
    • I met a guy who was a head of the Burn Center in Houston I believe in Washington DC
    • And there's a burn center also in Philadelphia
    • What I didn't know is they pay all the expenses of the families if they're let's say this child is in a car accident, they commit to not only the transportation of the child and so forth but they also commit to supporting the family and all the expenses of the family
    • Which I thought hey man that's I mean I saw a lot of these kids
    • One of the guys I met who was the head of this and DC said if you ever have a problem with like you everything having a bad day I got a headache or something and you're feeling sorry for yourself, just take a little walk through the Burn Center and--it'll work you'll find your way you'll work it out
    • {{ 911: Yes, believe everything Masons tell you. Shriner hospitals aren't feeders for missing foster children ratlines }}
    • Now is it all the other things and and and
    • Now people say oh he's changing a story on the Masons
    • I'm just presenting new information and letting you decide
    • Now he did say that between 32 and 33 it's a huge jump
    • What's that he has a media he was 32 and something happens between 32 and 33
    • That I don't know he doesn't know either and but something happens between 32 and 33 yeah yeah there's a very select it sounds like the number of thirty twos going to the number 33
    • So I don't know if you have to be an undertaker or--whatever but something is there's something at 32 to 33 that's a big hurdle that he had not made yet
    • Here I'll leave you with all the beautiful Christmas lights here and beautiful barely and hb9 Berliner barrel
  • Day 59.15. Contempt of Congress. - YouTube
    • It's day 59 this is 15 and fairly late, but I'm fairly surprised that Bruce Ohr would not show at the Senate committee
    • No matter what you can go in and just take the fifth
    • It's a secret testimony, nobody's gonna know that you took the fifth
    • I mean it might leak that you took the fifth
    • So what that's your constitutional right but to not show
    • I think is a smoking gun it shows that there is something you're hiding
    • And all power granted by the Constitution comes with oversight
    • I mean there's no branch of the government that has no oversight
    • So by saying that there's an you're not answerable to anyone, I think this kind of started on a bad path with Pagliano, being in contempt of Congress, and there being no--
    • A private citizen in contempt of a subpoena from Congress
    • And there was no retribution no no reprisal no I mean no punishment for that
    • It's set off kind of this chain reaction, where we are the FBI in what are you gonna do about it?
    • We are the secret police we are all powerful
    • And we don't have to come to your stinking hearing
    • That's just I mean that's almost a coup
    • I mean that's if by saying there's no oversight: if Andrew McCabe doesn't show tomorrow--that's a coup
    • I mean that's it's not a overt hot war coup
    • But it's certainly a contempt of Congress, where you're saying you have no power over us we are the FBI
  • Day 60.1 - Operation Cassandra - Car Theft Ring in Va For Drugs and Weapons? - YouTube
    • It's Day 60 and a lot of people have probably seen this article already
    • It's in Politico and it's the back from story of how there's a used car network that sends used cars
    • This is out of Northern Virginia
    • To West Africa to ship arms in used cars then to send those used cars to Central America to pick up cocaine
    • Maybe it's paint cocaine who knows?
    • And then bring those back in to the United States in a guns for arms trade network
    • And it's going to be called Operation Cassandra
    • Now the objection I have here of this investigation with over thirty investigators and over eight years of investigation is they couch it and hide it behind Hezbollah
    • Americans don't really know what Hezbollah is
    • Objection I have to this
    • But here it is
    • This is a global threat--how Hezbollah turned trafficking cocaine and lauded money through used cars to finance its expansion
    • Now what they could have said was 'northern car Virginia car ring operates over eight years in Chantilly Virginia'
    • Or in wherever it operated out of
    • But here it is--we know Al Attar
    • We identified a lot our being a member of the CIA car dealership way back when when
    • This I think going back Allah tar is in the first 120 150 days
    • I'll go back and check it
    • But here it is Project Cassandra, launched in 2008, DEA amassed evidence, Middle Eastern political military organization
    • Now is this going to be Chagoury, the Lebanese finance man bagman for Hezbollah
    • I think it's going to be Chagroury
    • Here's the DEA facility it's located in Chantilly Virginia they use wiretaps undercover operations and informants to map out this illicit network
    • We know the ax wants have an affinity before Iran
    • We know that they have Al Attar is a key person that has supported them
    • We followed cocaine shipments right from Latin America West Africa
    • Has anybody ever heard of pain cocaine and Jaquaya? Has anybody ever heard of that?
    • So this, again, the problem here is fuzzy reporting
    • It's like well we're gonna describe everything in general, but we're not gonna actually say who the people are involved in the conspiracy on the ground okay
    • So here they say oh yeah we tracked all the the cash moving back and forth we tracked all the--cars going back and forth
    • But we're not gonna say dates times and places
    • We're just gonna just fog up the journalism, so that it just makes you afraid of 'terrorism', but doesn't actually get down to the facts of actually what happened
    • There's no timeline of events here, for instance
    • Very fuzzy
    • Talking about leaders very far away and and very difficult to pin down
    • Here's a Lebanese Bank why not name the Lebanese bank
    • If it laundered billions of dollars of drug profits why not name the Lebanese bank here right?
    • And then they talk about these kind of shadowy organizations inside the paramilitary organizations inside Iran
    • But again, why not be specific and
    • Again, this is Preet Bharara which is color of law
    • Well oh yeah we had an eight year investigation, but we wanted to do the Iran nuclear deal, so we we backed off on this deal
    • Why not be specific?
    • Why not say rather than Lebanese financial institution, why not say exactly what the institution is, and who the financier is?
    • Again, use cars to Africa not me--this is Preet Bharara saying this
    • and I think we talked about that before
    • Now there are people that are out there in Florida, which will say, "no theirs were never used--for guns in one direction and drugs into another one." These experts that say the trains are never used to move these cars around
    • Well: fine. Well I think you need to talk to DEA you guys need to get on the phone DEA right now, and get your facts straight
    • Because this is now an eight year process, which basically got shelved or or pushed under by Jack Lew and the people in the Justice Department with Eric Holder etc
    • Again, I know it's so give this a read and Politico it goes into some of the people
    • Now Trump is on the case here
    • Trump has kind of named a person in Iran as a drug kingpin--the number two guy in Iran, but you need to drill down to the people that are here in Virginia
    • That's the key!
    • So that's reporting
    • This is fuzzy "be afraid of Iran reporting"
    • You need to get down to actually who bought what cars, what day, and a timeline, have been disputable events
  • Day 60.2 - Response to Motion To Dismiss For Haseeb Rana - YouTube
    • This is Day 60 part 2 and we have Haseeb Rana's response back
    • He's obviously gonna motion for dismissal that's kind of the first check of the swords and the in the parry here
    • And this of course also happened in the Beck case, that our case is derivative of
    • And they claim of "worldwide conspiracy": no actually I don't
    • I talk about a conspiracy of about a mile square actually it's within walking distance a quarter mile of Capitol Hill
    • So and and basically the summary of the argument by the defense is: there's two things 1 standing and 2 cause
    • So we'll just take those one at a time
    • Now remember this is derivative of the case of DNC
    • This is Wilding versus DNC
    • Jared back this is one of the plaintiffs here in Wilding
    • Remember: that the judge here found in his final opinion, article 62, that there was standing,
    • Even in this case the DNC, where they didn't know anything about the Awans, they didn't know anything about Fusion GPS, they didn't know anything about the Podesta group, they didn't know anything about ARMZ, they didn't know anything they knew a little tiny bit about uranium one
    • But really didn't have a concept of ActBlue(s) or phishing attacks or the agreement with Hillary for America with the JCA agreement
    • None of that. None of that was known
    • And even at that here's the judges final opinion after it's all said and done
    • Again, they the defense quotes a flurry of--just a litany of lawsuits that are not related to the actual case
    • Which the actual case is gonna be a case that's tried already on this on similar grounds, that's derivative of this
    • They quote all this case law that just has nothing to do whatsoever with the case
    • When you when you go before a judge, you cannot waste their time, and their legal staffs' time
    • You have to go immediately to the most relevant facts and this has already been adjudicated
    • Now the basis of the standing has already been adjudicated by a judge
    • And he said, "yes there standing"
    • Now he said basically there was "weak standing"
    • So that's why the case was dismissed, but it moved forward
    • I'll just read judge Locke's opinion here "but the plaintiffs in this case do not allege a causal link between their donations and DNC statements."
    • Well I sure do, because Bernie went from town to town saying "hey--give me money, work the phones for me, knock on doors"
    • There's a whole bunch of people that did a whole bunch of statements here thinking they were sending their money to Bernie
    • Now with that JCA agreement, we know that it was swept
    • It was just swept directly to Brooklyn--swept directly to Brooklyn
    • They did not make this case. Jared did not make this case
    • I will
    • I don't I don't have that standing problem
    • So they lacked standing to assert that claim because they didn't make that connection
    • I certainly am going to make that connection
    • They talked about of fiduciary breach, which is not enough to--buffered by too many layers of speculation--I'm not buffering anything
    • I'm saying it's the Awans,
    • It's the Becerra server
    • It's the hack that occurred
    • It's Nancy Pelosi's cover up--get Imran in here
    • Here's the days that Imran was at DNC
    • Here's the inspector general's report
    • Here's the credit union report
    • Here's the night of the inauguration burglary report
    • Here's the John Wilkes phone booth report
    • Here is all the different police reports in Fairfax County of beatings...
    • And here's all the the problems with all these different companies--
    • So there's no lack of proof here, with the Awans
    • And remember the chairman of the DNC her right-hand man was Imran Awan
    • He was running around her laptop her life had her phones and her passwords
    • So the link is is is iron
    • There is a almost a meld between Imran Awan and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz
    • Now we come to the idea of of Haseeb Rana, being hand-selected and selected surrogate
    • Now here I'm in a motion for oral argument, because my motion to compel discovery of those documents I just talked about, has not even been entered in by DC district
    • That's over seven days ago now--eight days ago
    • Now equally the production of documents is not there
    • And also production of discovery is not there
    • The judge has never seen this
    • He has no idea that there is a very strong case against Imran Awan
    • Just in documents that that could inform the court and
    • Again, we want to move towards judicial economy
    • We don't want to waste the Court's time we don't want to waste the staff of a court
    • So moving on I'm gonna quote where not my testimony not my testimony
    • I'm gonna quote the people that are actually the father of the defendant, saying "hey this is the situation"
    • So I'm gonna quote that article that Luke said, and I'm gonna just go down here
    • And this is my motion to oppose a motion to dismiss
    • We're gonna clean that up a little bit
    • But basically I go here and I say look with allegedly no-show employees connected to Imran, being added to numerous House offices, someone had to do the work
    • Imran enlisted an old high school friend Haseeb Rana for this purpose
    • Haseeb Rana did not respond in the comments but his father did
    • Tanwir Rana and he said, "hey they made him do all the work"
    • Here his father is saying, "Haseeb are the hands of Imran Awan and Rao Abbas"
    • "He is the hands the brain is Imran, the brain may be also a Rao Abbas, maybe that's the wheels, but but Haseeb is the hands"
    • So this conspiracy is one thing it's one body it's one corpus okay
    • So there's his father testifying, not something I'm asserting from a third party
    • So of course what it's not evidence yet, but I mean this leads you to believe that there's reasonable suspicion
    • And then you've got [Tanwir] saying, Imran manipulated his high school buddy Haseeb Rana into doing his work
    • Well if those were crimes if those were felonies you if did--that those were felonies that's the key question
    • There's clear evidence with all those documents that felonies were committed
    • My son is quiet
    • Imran's the opposite always relishing power and displays of influence
    • well that's fine I believe all that to be true I believe his father knows him pretty well here and then here here
    • Again, a direct linkage an iron linkage between Imran and Haseeb
    • Haseeb believed Imran hired him directly, although men were not part of the same company and were hired as different W2 employees of Congress
    • So here he signed an individual agreement--an employment agreement
    • He signed the Terms of Use Agreement
    • He signed to W2 in terms of filing his taxes
    • He had to understand that he worked directly for the Congress and had responsibilities
    • If you're taking orders from Imran and breaking your Terms of Use Agreement, your confidentiality agreement, your other agreements with equipment going to Pakistan, for instance, or money going to Pakistan, you're on the hook
    • There's no getting out of this you're on the hook
    • So again, a timeline of events
    • We're going to present this to the judge--a timeline of events
    • Imran basically Rayo hires Imran here after 2003
    • Imran gets bankruptcy in 2002
    • He starts this company the bankruptcy heads in May of 2002
    • And then he brings Rao in November, after they win the election
    • And he starts another mortgage company
    • Imran starts another mortgage company
    • And then Haseeb Rana comes in and Haseeb Rana is is employed in the Congress for two years and one month
    • And he works for six or seven different Congressmen
    • I'm sorry but you have to realize if you're a W2 employee and it says the US Congress on your check, your loyalty is to the US Congress while he's there
    • Well the CDW and some of the other things happen after he leaves, but you're still on the hook for stuff that happens while you're an employee in the United States Congress
    • There's a couple of good resources I wanted to point people to
    • This guy here which he's the litigation kind of guy
    • And I like him--I like watching him if people want to watch him at Steve V O N D R A N
    • And he's a good one and then there's other resources out here to wikiHow
    • Talks about responding to different motions...for people who are doing their own
    • For people are doing their own lawsuits
    • There's another interesting thing here with Haseeb
    • He's involved in this company a surgical company -
    • I think one's a surgical glove company and the other one looks like they do something for dentistry
    • Maybe it's the same company one's called triumph Surgical
    • And the other was Accu-surgident
    • So we don't know exactly what that is but there's the DUNS number for people who want to look up for it
    • My first question was do they do business with the Army or the Navy?
    • Do they do business with Fort Belvoir?
    • Is that Duns number in any contracts in any Federal contracts?
    • There's another company called S A M A W E E and I don't have a Duns number just yet for that
    • But I'm interested to see if they do any business in Fort Belvoir
    • But there you go
    • There's this period of hire Q1 of the 2013
    • Q1 of 2015 and then--1 2 3 4 5 6 7 has worked for seven different representatives in the house
    • Your loyalty's have to be to these representatives and the Congress and the rules of the Congress
    • The sergeant of arms it's not to Imran Awan
    • You may be from the same little village in Pakistan, but you still have to abide by your agreements
    • When you take the money when you take the money in your employment agreement, you have to go by the rules of your employer, not by somebody who you think got your the job
    • That's what it book kind of boils down to here
  • Day 60.3. Cops, Drugs, and JTTF. Symbiosis. - YouTube
    • This is Day 60 a little bit of a lockdown situation I think to just keep it everybody away for the vote this tax vote I think it's going to go until the middle of the night
    • So we'll see what happens
    • I think the vice president's coming up
    • So I think it's gonna be a close one you never know
    • So anyway yeah the Capitol Police are out
    • Now if they wanted to give me the Imran Awan police reports, while they're up here that would be awfully nice
    • So I saw that DNC also asked to dismiss motion to dismiss, which is really funny
    • It's like there's no basis here
    • Whoa what has happened since August of last August of this year, since the DNC case
    • The Awans, the break-ins on there was no connection to the DNC when Jared Beck had his case dismissed
    • Now we know the Awans did the DCCC, they did the DNC, Fusion GPS, McCAbe's paying Fusion GPS for the dossiers, bringing in spies, probably in Maryland
    • I mean so many things, going after the president
    • So this is the part that I really didn't want to say
    • I've always kind of been pushing this off in the background
    • But there is gonna be this drugs--I'm not saying that the FBI is in on it with for the drug piece, but there is sort of a symbiotic relationship a cops-and-robbers relationship
    • Where you go ahead and do your thing, and we'll look over this way, color a law, then every once in a while make a deposit, and we'll bust a couple of people and bring them in
    • It's kind of the old Chicago way
    • So then and I am going to be involved in try to break that up on the I-5 corridor
    • And I'll just let everybody know right now Fresno is the spot
    • And that's where the Hells Angels are based
    • And Jeanine and Linda Muller and the sex first and then the drugs
    • I never did any of the drugs
    • But I have been outspoken about JTTF ratline there
    • Again, I'm not saying they run the ratline, I'm just saying it's symbiotic
    • I'm just saying it's symbiotic
    • So there's your Capitol report
    • Andy McCabe actually is testifying just under my feet here, not too far from me
    • So hopefully he'll have good things to say
    • And he'll just fess up, own up
    • I filed my motion to oppose
    • Obviously, I opposed the motion for Haseeb Rana and you can read that now
    • Hopefully it'll get scanned
    • They'll scan in some of my stuff I'm still waiting for stuff eight days ago that hasn't been scanned
    • So hopefully they'll scan my stuff
    • And I'll be able to respond
    • And they won't just give me a default judgment, because they're not scanning my stuff

  • Day 61.1 Journalism BEGINS When You Get a Preet Christmas Present - YouTube
  • It's day 61 and this is part one
  • And this big Project Cassandra dropped yesterday in Politico
  • This part 1, part 2, part 3, very long article
  • I believe it was dropped by Preet Bharara and Andrew McCabe for their network here in Northern Virginia
  • And also Maryland,
  • Because this didn't come about
  • You don't interview 35 people and the whole thing perfectly fits together Day 1 unless you're trying to give it to somebody who's gonna bury the story
  • Take all the names out of it take all the who, what, when, where, just do the and why out of it and just say when things occurred
  • And a very light treatment on what actually happened
  • But if you haven't read the article it's very good
  • But now what's happening is the metadata is emerging
  • So people are coming in who are involved in this project because there were
  • So many people and this is going to show that the Awans are involved in this directly with Hezbollah
  • And I'll show you how
  • But for those who don't remember here's kind of the Mark Levin show yesterday where a guy was an investigator actually calls in
  • And he's talking about where they laundered the money through, what mosque they laundered the money through,
  • "It was 2009-2010 I'd have to go back and look at the reports, but it was around 2009, 2010. Mm-hmm go ahead I'm sorry I interrupted you--no no it's fine we also discovered they were the golden dawn dome mosque, we knew the exact mosque we knew where they were living. We knew who"
  • So that mosque if you remember that's the DAR all Harwich Dar al-Hirah mosque and what's important about this and where it's located is it's in unincorporated Fairfax County
  • So if you had a friend who is the intake officer at Fairfax County, you could make friends with them as far as who worked here and who came and went out of this mosque
  • And would provide protective cover for those people
  • For cover such people as murderers such as Arshad Mahmood
  • So if you go back to my first day in Washington DC, the brain of the operation is gonna be right here at the CIA car dealership at 724 South Washington Street
  • I can't remember how many videos I did there: lots
  • and then there Dar Al-Hirah was right next to it just outside a Falls Church
  • Arshad Mahmood's down here in Woodbridge
  • He's the enforcer for all these different ratlines
  • This is just gonna be one of a finger of the hand
  • There's give me five of these ratlines, mainly centered around the community colleges
  • And then this guy last night was calling in from Fredericksburg
  • And this is that Smuggler's Cove that I was talking about, where kind of Potomac bends at a 90-degree angle here by Mount Vernon
  • So what I'll do is I will just go quickly to my first day in Washington
  • And we can see what I said that that time
  • "IT's still there we don't know I just met Taggart at that moment-- we don't know but he did say this is kind of Herman United States Marine he did say unequivocally that Imran had left Blackberries which is interesting. If he is the beta expert for Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and Hillary and with black bears left in the home, that would be an interesting find"
  • So I think the important thing there is that even back at day 170, which is this is over two hundred and thirty days ago
  • Now, there was first day in Washington, if you look at it I had Light Bridge Communication, which still hasn't been reported on as far as the Imran working at light bridge
  • I had the satellite piece of this with kind of a NOAA piece, which still hasn't been reported on
  • I had DISA which is the Annapolis piece that where I went this weekend okay
  • So all these things in the first weekend and I had of course obviously Hawkshead to get the hard drive story
  • So this is a part that still hasn't been done on this story, with the Hezbollah, and it's and it's a spin
  • Now the press kids here in Washington DC are going to accept this as fact
  • But this is actually, I hate to say it, this is how it's done
  • You actually go to the neighborhood and you actually go to sorters or and the down involved in a murder a car dealer in near Richmond hired two MS-13 Gang Members
  • So I doubt he's still here but let's see if he aces and the this is also true for investigators--as far as not just journalists, but investigators--you need to go to the the front door
  • Just to show that I had said that this money-laundering was happening at the mosque and the Awans were the stolen cars
  • Still this is not come out yet and the NADRA bank connection to Firtash still has not come out yet
  • So we're seeing this, but here's EZ Car Buying and all the other metadata that just fits perfectly with this story about Hezbollah
  • Now remember they're in business with the top Hezbollah guy
  • Of course here's the favorite famous jeans video me asking people different questions at the different doors, more than eight years ago at one location and then here I'll stop that could it be more went to California
  • And that I think Suriyah Begum does end up going to California
  • But pretty quickly in one day I was able to go to most of the locations
  • And then of course there is me at the mosque that night
  • And here we go I'll just play a little short clip
  • I met the very famous star Dar Al Hijrah Mosque in Falls Church Virginia okay
  • So that's all I'll say for right now, but there's a lot more reporting to be done in the story
  • And what I like to do is take a great story like the one we have
  • Now if Cassandra and then pick up where that left off and move forward from that
submitted by 911bodysnatchers322 to TruthLeaks [link] [comments]

Prismed innocent until proven guilty: How I live with NSA Prism

A couple people have asked me details regarding some security tools I use. I figured I'd make a post for people who might be interested. It outlines some technical approaches and tradeoffs I make to retain some semblance of privacy in this modern Internet Age.
Our current administration has made it abundantly clear they could care less about the constitutionality of the Intel community's collection methods. For those who have been living in a cave (and ironically would then have nothing to fear from this), the NSA Prism program in cooperation with the FBI gives the government basically unfettered access to private information you have stored at many of America's major tech players.
The full extent of these programs is slowly being revealed, and the FISA court seems perfectly willing to allow ongoing telecommunication surveillance on American citizens who have done nothing wrong. They collect and store your information in bulk, but hold back on analyzing it. Once they go through the arduous process of legally gaining permission to investigate you, they can retroactively analyze what they have collected. It's a major loophole, but it works.
What's worse is many of the tech giants (Google, Apple, Verizon) have been playing ball silently since 2009, only pretending to care when a national PR embarrassment is thrown in their lap.
So to the point, I've been slowly removing my dependency on Google and other Prism choke points.
There's a great site I discovered from Hacker News: Prism Break. It outlines many solid alternatives for web services and computing tools that are unlikely to cooperate with Prism for a long time (if ever). As with most software, there are trade offs between the ease of use in mature commercial products and their privacy guarantees.
This post is about some of the recent changes I've made with respect to Prism-Break and my own research on Hacker News, Reddit, and general insider knowledge gained from working with smart technical people over the years. You'll notice a recurring theme of evaluating ease of use with security, and many of my decisions actually err on the side of usage, despite the tone of this post.
Web Browser:
I recently switched from Google Chrome back to Firefox. I always liked Chrome because of how quickly it rendered pages, particularly Javascript heavy pages, and made tab management easier. The web developer toolbox is second to none. Although I must admit, Mozilla Firefox has stayed very competitive with them. There is a negligible performance drop off, but it's barely noticeable and nothing significant. You can't really trust Chrome unfortunately, even with aggressive privacy settings (no analytics, etc.) . Firefox is not as malware/exploit bulletproof as Chrome, but it is close, and the open source nature makes it a very attractive alternative. I NEVER save passwords through the browser and always tell it never to ask. Both Chrome and Firefox are well know for storing passwords in plain text.
Web Browser Add-ons:
Not exactly a browser add-on, but it does help with security.
I pay $80/year for an OpenVPN subscription to Mullvad, which I discovered reading a comment thread on Reddit. They are based in Sweden and retain absolutely no information about you. They could give a fuck.
The OpenVPN standard encrypts all outbound communication from the originating device using layer 2 SSL. Traffic appears as normal HTTPS. This is different than other VPN technologies that use with IPSEC, the presence of which is easy to detect and thus limits any plausible deniability. It's also different than a simple web proxy that does not necessarily offer encryption to prevent ISP monitoring/throttling, and often only handles HTTP or SOCKS traffic, which is often slower. Mullvad is fast enough that I've just gotten in the habit of leaving it running at all times. Plus it never get old having sites show me geo-aware ads in Swedish.
The trade off is it's a bit more expensive than many of the web proxy providers. However, there are certain fringe benefits to having completely anonymous web traffic. Don't hate the player hate the game.
The fact that traffic is difficult to distinguish between secure web browsing and OpenVPN has made it an attractive countermeasure to the great firewall of China and other censorship technologies. There is a constant leap-frogging battle between those governments and OpenVPN vendors like Mullvad. It's reminiscent of the old PC gaming piracy protection vs. CD burning wars before everyone started using Steam.
Web Search:
I have configured Firefox to use StartPage as my default Search engine. They have a similar don't-give-a-fuck privacy policy to Mullvad (they're in the NE), and route all your searches anonymously through Google. It's not 100% equivalent to US Google, but it has not let me down yet. It's about 95% equivalent from my weeks testing it. There has only been one obscure search for this weird video it couldn't find. Not a big deal. For most of my research, it hits the mark. There is an extra half second of latency in the response, but I can deal with that.
They have a plugin for Firefox, but I've configured it to perform address bar searches by A) opening a new tab B) typing 'about:config' C) Searching for the property 'keyword.url' D) Change it to 'https://www.startpage.com/do/search?ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sourceid=navclient&gfns=1&q='
Maps:
You're basically screwed here. Nothing works like Google Maps. They are echelons past their competitors. I can say that having used OpenLayers and ArcGIS for some technical work in the past. Plus we all remember how good a job Apple did with their iphone 5 maps.
Just make sure you're not logged into your Google Account and preferably running OpenVPN when you do your search.
Instant Messaging:
This is the first example you'll see where I lean more in the ease of use than the security.
When I'm going to run IM, I use encrypted Gtalk over Adium.
Mainly because it would take too much effort to convince all my friends to use to a protocol that allowed true point-to-point encryption that's off the record. I use SSL between my host and the GTalk server, but Google still has access on their servers to the plain text messages (even if it's OTR I suspect, no proof though). Moreover, your chat partner may not be using it, in which case all those messages are still visible downstream in plaintext.
The only good alternative is just to stop using it so damn much. This is a work in progress for me.
Video VoIP:
Skype sucks. It really does. They haven't been the same since Microsoft acquired them. What's interesting is the tool was built with pretty impressive reverse-engineering countermeasures, and goes through great lengths to circumvent NAT in order to make your calls. Unfortunately there are known backdoors where third parties can ease drop. It is not to be trusted anymore for secure conversations. I don't make video VoIP that frequently anymore, but if I had to I would try out Prism-Break's suggestion for Jitsi. It looks promising.
I would also avoid Facetime like the plague, simply because I think Apple has zero credibility for protecting your privacy (just as Microsoft and Google).
Social Networking:
Not much you can do here if you enjoy the major players like Facebook. Similar to instant messaging, you're limited by the people you want to communicate with. I'm reasonable careful these days about what I post on FB/LinkedIn/Google+ when I use them (which is infrequent). And I don't mean just what is publicly available to my contacts. I mean everything.
I personally don't have a problem with these services and think they add a lot of value. I try to keep really personal stuff off them, but that guarantee is a bit naive. I know I've slipped up a few times, and FB has access to some pretty funny private messages. I mostly enjoy the read-only features of these sites, and rarely contribute, but that's not really good enough.
Just by having an account with some basic information and friend links, they can learn a lot about you. For example, one of my good friends likes to check all of us in on Facebook when we go to a listed restaurant. That's not even something I opted into, but FB gets to learn facts about me based solely on that association. I've met girls who later looked me up through FB friends and sent weird unsolicited PMs. We've all been there. Facebook, and thus the government, has access to all that shit. They even have a whole suite of creepy analytics that can tell if you're gay.
Cloud Storage:
This is one of the more interesting ones. There are so many choices for secure backups, but it's difficult to find a be-all-end-all solution that satisfies everyone.
I personally use per-file encryption on Amazon S3. It's the same storage backend as Dropbox, but I encrypted everything first by hand and don't bother with file sync.
My methods are simple but require quite a bit of micro-mangement. I run each file through a Mac OSX utility named crypt from the command line before I post it to my S3 buckets. The utility defaults to AES-256 bit encryption and is really easy to use. This custom version I modified for OSX cleans up the command entry a bit from the authors original version.
I will say there are very fancy solutions out there for users who demand a bit more.
Dropbox is really slick with file sync and ease of use, but everything is unencrypted on Amazon. Unacceptable.
To counter this, some people supplement Dropbox with a tool named EncFS. It transparently encrypts/decrypts file contents from any directory, which works with Dropbox, but you need to be a bit of power user to set it up. There's also Tarsnap, but it supposedly doesn't handle incremental syncs well and doesn't work on Windows. One interesting solution I looked at was using BitTorrent Sync to do cross-device backups and syncing, but I wanted something that backs up to the cloud, not just my own devices. There really is no easy-to-use solution that efficiently synchronizes files and is secure. Dropbox + EncFS is close, but not exactly easy to use.
Documents:
This one has been difficult. There aren't too many good solutions out there. I have looked at Zoho before and they offer a lot. It's hard to imagine it easier to use than Google Docs though. Prezi is cool for building presentations that don't look like PowerPoint vomit.
I really don't have a good suggestion here. If this became a frequent requirement, I'd probably create a new Google Account with some bogus personal information that wasn't associated with any of my previous Google Accounts. Although they could very easily correlate something written in one of my documents with a best-guess at a related Google account (also based on IP logging). Google's latest terms of service and privacy agreements allows for these types of cross-service analytics.
Media Publishing:
I use Imgur for everything.
Email Services:
Another interesting one. If I use an anonymous service like FastMail, but 70% of my emails go to Gmail recipients, am I really hiding anything from Google?
At the very least I'm not going to make it easy for them. So far I've been impressed with FastMail. The UI feels comfortably like Gmail, except much more responsive. It offers competitive features with Gmail like anti-spam, full text search, achieving, filtering and custom DNS. There are no ads, but it is a pay service.
Email Desktop Clients:
I haven't done this for quite some time. If I had to, I'd probably try Mozilla Thunderbird.
Email Encryption:
I don't bother with this. 99% of people don't want to fool with it. Just like with Dropbox + EncFS for file storage, most encrypted email systems require people who are somewhat technically competent. It's an unreasonable expectation.
Online Transactions:
Sadly I still use PayPal. A lot of people are attacking this problem right now (Stripe, Square, etc.) No one has come out victorious yet as the PayPal killer, but I am waiting anxiously.
BitCoin is a really cool technology that's gaining some traction, but many merchants don't yet accept it, and some of the security around wallet controls leaves a lot to be desired. It's interesting to read about how the currency works from a technical standpoint. It has resisted many attempts at exploitation and bot-mining, but the major weakness appears to be wallet security.
Android:
I dumped the NSA conspirator Verizon in favor of Solavei running over T-Mobile infrastructure. This involved forcefully unlocking my phone and installing a root kit to gain superuser permissions. If you're thinking of switching from Verizon to one of their competitors, don't try to port your phone unless you're prepared for USB debugging, ROM installation and a $15 unlock code (depending on the phone and whether or not you're willing to dig with a HEX editor). I learned a lot, but I wouldn't wish it on other people who just want their phone to work. I run CyanogenMod 7.2 for my Android ROM. I have no outbound encryption through for any of the common apps (Google Maps, Reddit, etc) so this is a weak point for me right now.
Operating System:
I run Mac OSX. It's just too smooth and efficient for technical work. I can't give it up. Linux is nice with respect to production scenarios, but the user-experience of most of the x-windows managers just doesn't compare to OSX. I'm very careful about what updates I perform though, and run Little Snitch so that I can approve and monitor any outbound connections my machine tries to make. It's technically possible Apple has baked some dubious reporting into the core apsd services, but there's not much more I can do without handicapping the machine.
submitted by shazzdeeds to restorethefourth [link] [comments]

BITCOIN: Vizionary Overview with Top Leader Scott Schlemmer Debunking Economics and Why Bitcoin Will Fail With Steve Keen The 48 Laws of Power (Animated) - YouTube Bitcoin This Week: India is Anti-Bitcoin, A Bitcoin Puzzle ... Bitcoin Exchange - Bitcoin Exchange Rate - Video

If I buy bitcoin on the street with cash – without revealing any personal information, using a public network, and a device with a mac address that can’t be linked to me, then I can spend that bitcoin with absolute anonymity unless I reveal personal info to whoever I send that bitcoin to. In the case of Silk Road, the guy who sends me the drugs would need my mailing address, but that can ... Expected bitcoin supply over time. In May 2010, one bitcoin traded at half a cent. It rose steeply until it reached $30 in June 2011 (a 600,000% increase) before crashing back to $2 in October 17 ... Constitution? Dec 17, 2015 • mfp19 Tags: politics personal crackdown hacktivist constitution pirate conclusion There was an integrity issue and there is a technological solution that doesn’t expand the attack surface by introducing third parties (ex: cloud commercial services). On top of TCP/IP, with its own problems of integrity (ex: of routing messages) and its own solutions (ex ... The bitcoin protocol is showing its weaknesses every day, particularly when it comes to scaling up to higher transaction volumes. The blockchain is getting bloated by SatoshiDice which is a nearly perfect transaction spamming system and the bugs in the older clients which nearly forked the blockchain a while ago mean there is presently a hard limit to the number of transactions registered ... Bitcoin is the currency of the Internet: a distributed, worldwide, decentralized digital money. Unlike traditional currencies such as dollars, bitcoins are issued and managed without any central authority whatsoever: there is no government, company, or bank in charge of Bitcoin. As such, it is more resistant to wild inflation and corrupt banks. With Bitcoin, you can be your own bank. If you ...

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BITCOIN: Vizionary Overview with Top Leader Scott Schlemmer

Access the full archive for 7$ & download exclusive content at https://gumroad.com/l/illacertus. Stream or download over 8 hours of animated content, new and... This week in Bitcoin: A weak Bitcoin leads the way for The Dow Jones collapse, Major credit card companies block Bitcoin purchases, Ukraine raids cryptocurre... Bitcoin is often praised by proponents of Austrian Economics, but Steve believes that Bitcoin will fail due to flaws in the protocol design. In this interview I talk to Steve about why the 2008 ... I look at the bitcoin, capricoin, and the rest of the cryptocurrency space as the internet of the early 90's. We're still not quite sure what to make of it, but we do know that this is the future ... Capricoin has taken all the good things from Bitcoin and improved on its weaknesses. In this video I break down all of those things including instant payments and a much more stable network to ...

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