The Four Horsemen - Signs of Incoming Crashes, and things.
Hey y'all! I'm going to keep this brief, but I was asked by Mr. October to post this, since I briefly described this on a discord we're both in. I do a ton of market analysis, mostly on alternative data, so I don't have cool superpowers potentially, but I do fancy myself a good trendspotter. I wanted to share what I call my Four Horseman metric in brief, and I will fill it in more later when I get back/free from the clutches of homework. The Four Horsemen:
Rapid plunge in BTC/USD - This is an interesting metric, and makes sense if you understand that BTC has evolved from a hedge to a speculation play, which is why it arguably moves in lockstep with SPY most days. However, an interesting property I and many others have noticed is BTC seems to be a leading indicator of market movements, and rapid climbs/plunges tend to signal an incoming correction. See the chart on September 2nd, 2020 for an example.
NOPE_MAD >= 3 End of Day: NOPE, or Net Option Pricing Effect, in principle looks at how dominant options flow trading volume is on the market compared to the more conventional shares volume. When the NOPE_MAD (median absolute deviation) compared to the previous 30 days is 3 deviations higher than normal, this means a red day the next day about 88% of the time (backtested to Mar 2019). You can check NOPE_MAD intraday here - https://thenope.info/nope/default/charts/SPY/2020-10-13 (the URL changes per day, so tomorrow will be 2020-10-14)
The VIX rising with SPY - This usually is part of the parabolic phase, and means a metric fuck ton of calls are being written, which is pushing up option prices across the board. Usually VIX is a measure of downies-volatility, so when it and SPY both go up, it's a Very Bad Thing. Also see September 2nd, 2020.
Small Tech/Caps Leading Big Tech/Caps - This is a more interesting metric, and only makes sense when you understand what causes a Minsky Moment style correction (irrational exuberance). In a stable market, big caps tend to act as a source of strength/safe harbor, and when small caps are leading, this tends to signal intense bull mania, which usually precedes a correction.
Microsoft going up parabolically - Microsoft is our favorite boomer stock for a reason - it is much more stable than AMZN or AAPL, and doesn't like large movements. I noticed anecdotally this year that right before all the big tech corrections (3-5 days out) MSFT goes up exponentially, often more than the rest of the market, because smart money is looking for safe harbor.
I'd be happy to answer any questions later! Edit: Wanted to add some stuff given the comments below.
I did not write this to predict a crash based on today's behavior, but to generally inform about a metric I use to detect Minsky Moment style crashes. For more info on that - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment
Lots of these indicators are new, and due in large part due to the relative fuckiness of the current market. Bitcoin and SPY did not track until this year, and I only noticed the Microsoft effect I mentioned since about 6/5 onwards. This likely also happens in other boomesafe stocks, but MSFT is by far my largest active trading position, hence why I noticed it.
I will be adding a post soon specifically dedicated to the interpretation of NOPE and NOPE_MAD.
Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet
Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots. A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC). Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea. When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust. However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:
Is Bitcoin money?
No. Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves: 1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own. As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get. You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there? 2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile. If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point: 3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away. For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast. On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad. One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy. If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due. Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.
BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in
Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense. Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run. See here Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well. Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money. Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand. Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control. It's also a national security risk... The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca. He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade. This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.
Currencies are based on trust
Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged? The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president. People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all. It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board. For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government." The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.
BTC is not gold
Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value. How do we know that? Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan. Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well. Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties: First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment. Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials. Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans. It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods. To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that. On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Means of Exchange: if people seriously start using BTC to buy pizzas, then this creates a real demand for the currency to accomplish the short-term exchanges. As we saw previously, I'm not personally sold on this one and it's currently a negligible fraction of overall demand.
Criminal uses: Probably the largest inbuilt advantage of BTC is that it's anonymous, and so a great way to launder money. Hacker gangs use BTC to demand ransom on cryptolocker type attacks because it's a shared way for an honest company to pay and for the criminals to receive money without going to jail.
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.
BTC is really risky
One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds. But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:
A critical software vulnerability is found in the BTC codebase, leading to a possible exploitation.
Xi Jinping decides he's had enough of rich people in China hiding their assets from him and bans BTC.
Some form of bank run takes hold for whatever reason. Because BTC wallets are uninsured, unlike regular banks, this compounds into a Black Tuesday style crash.
Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient
Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science. That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale. The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
BTC was estimated to use as much electricity as Belgium in 2019. It's hard to trace where the BTC mining comes from, but we can assume it has a huge carbon footprint.
A single transactions is necessarily expensive. A single transaction takes as much electricity as 800,000 VISA transactions, or watching 50,000 hours of youtube videos.
There is a large necessary tax on the transaction, since those checking the transaction extract a few BTC from it to be incentivized to do the work of checking it.
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
Ultimate glossary of crypto currency terms, acronyms and abbreviations
The idea of that as more people adopt Bitcoin the price will stabilize to its long term exponential curve. Here's why I think that's true.
We're already seeing this. Check out the price charts to confirm.
It makes sense. The ratio of seasoned Bitcoiners to new investors increases over time. N00bs are far more likely to panic sell for a loss. So as more and more Bitcoin users develop their strong aversion to selling, the sharp downward swings (caused by panic selling n00bs) are reduced in severity and frequency.
Plus now we have larger, more wealthy entities who buy the dip. Microstrategy already publicly announced that they're doing this. So large dips are cut off before they gain any momentum. You'll only see large downward swings if someone cashes out a few million dollars in BTC all at once. But the severity of those dips will be blunted.
Regular buyers: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust alone is buying more than 100% of the newly mined Bitcoins. Where do you think the extra Bitcoin is coming from? (BTW glorious nation of Kazakhstan just invested $700,000,000 in Bitcoin mining gear). Eventually this pool of existing Bitcoin that they're buying from will dry up more and more. That's without even considering the massive effect that the 4 year halving cycle creates.
At the next halving 31months from now, the amount of new Bitcoin created gets cut in half again for the 4th time. This will run the well even drier. Let's say Grayscale continues to buy the same amount (even though they will definitely keep increasing their investment and other players will join in too). The faster the reserve of already existing Bitcoin is getting bought up, the faster the price goes up. The halvings increase this every 4 years.
It is an absolute certainty that Bitcoin will outperform every alternative investment and one day replace or completely dominate every other type of money. And for the Bitcoin scaling issue, the lightning network has already solved that. It does a million transactions per second, and has the capacity to send 10 BTC at once, instantly, for a few Satoshis (practically free). The Bitcoin blockchain will always run right about at capacity. The lightning network has private transactions. How do we know that Bitcoin together with Bitcoin lightning aren't doing as much business as Visa? There is no limit for how high Bitcoin will go. Compare this with TSLA. Today they have a P/E ratio of 1145. Many will consider this to be overvalued. That limits how high the stock price can go. Plus, you can't spend stock. You HAVE TO sell it first. Bitcoin has no such limits. The price of Bitcoin can and will continue to go up exponentially over the long term. As volatility improves, the pace of price increase should increase as well. Accelerating acceleration. You never need to sell Bitcoin. Just spend it, unlike stocks or other financial instruments. Eventually, after 6 or 7 more halvenings, Bitcoin will have a market cap of higher than the rest of the world's wealth combined. Every step is there between here and then. Eventually government created fiat money will be nearly entirely worthless by comparison. This halving period will create another bull run as more institutional investors adopt the hold forever strategy. Volatility goes down. Bitcoin becomes more famous for its performance, draws deeper attention, converts more believers/investors, more people hold forever, Bitcoin price goes to infinity with no limit. It's just a matter of time. Bitcoin is the most genius thing I've ever seen.
Wandering From the Path? | Monthly Portfolio Update - August 2020
Midway along the journey of our lifeI woke to find myself in a dark wood,for I had wandered off from the straight path. Dante, The Divine Comedy: Inferno, Canto I This is my forty-fifth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund $733 769
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund $41 794
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund $78 533
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund $110 771
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) $216 758
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) $64 542
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) $237 138
Telstra shares (TLS) $1 540
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) $6 043
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) $5 532
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) $121 976
Secured physical gold $19 535
Ratesetter (P2P lending) $8 998
Bitcoin $177 310
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) $17 421
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) $2 759
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) $4 477
Total portfolio value $1 848 896 (+$48 777 or 2.7%) Asset allocation
Australian shares 41.5%
Global shares 22.6%
Emerging market shares 2.2%
International small companies 2.8%
Total international shares 27.6%
Total shares 69.2% (5.8% under)
Total property securities 0.2% (0.2% over)
Australian bonds 4.4%
International bonds 8.9%
Total bonds 13.3% (1.7% under)
Gold and alternatives 17.2% (7.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments The portfolio has increased in value for the fifth consecutive month, and is starting to approach the monthly value last reached in January. The portfolio has grown over $48 000, or 2.7 per cent this month, reflecting the strong market recovery since late March [Chart] The growth in the portfolio was broadly-based across global and Australian equities, with an increase of around 3.8 per cent. Following strong previous rises, gold holdings decreased by around 2.2 per cent, while Bitcoin continued to increase in value (by 2.5 per cent). Combined, the value of gold and Bitcoin holdings remain at a new peak, while total equity holdings are still below their late January peak to the tune of around $50 000. The fixed income holdings of the portfolio continue to fall below the target allocation. [Chart] The expanding value of gold and Bitcoin holdings since January last year have actually had the practical effect of driving new investments into equities, since effectively for each dollar of appreciation, for example, my target allocation to equities rises by seven dollars. New investments this month have been in the Vanguard international shares exchange-traded fund (VGS) and the Australian shares equivalent (VAS). These have been directed to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares set out in the portfolio plan. As the exchange traded funds such as VGS, VAS and Betashares A200 now make up nearly 30 per cent of the overall portfolio, the quarterly payments they provide have increased in magnitude and importance. Early in the journey, third quarter distributions were essentially immaterial events. Using the same 'median per unit' forecast approach as recently used for half yearly forecasts would suggest a third quarter payout due at the end of September of around $6000. Due to significant announced dividend reductions across this year I am, however, currently assuming this is likely to be significantly lower, and perhaps in the vicinity of $4000 or less. Finding true north: approach to achieving a set asset allocation One of the choices facing all investors with a preferred asset allocation is how strictly the target is applied over time, and what variability is acceptable around that. There is a significant body of financial literature around that issue. My own approach has been to seek to target the preferred asset allocation dynamically, through buying the asset class that is furthest from its target, with new portfolio contributions, and re-investment of paid out distributions. As part of monitoring asset allocation, I also track a measure of 'absolute' variance, to understand at a whole of portfolio level how far it is from the desired allocation. This is the sum of the absolute value of variances (e.g. so that being 3 per cent under target in shares, and 7 per cent over target in fixed interest will equal an absolute variance of 10 per cent under this measure). This measure is currently sitting near its highest level in around 2 years, at 15.0 per cent, as can be seen in the chart below. [Chart] The dominant reason for this higher level of variance from target is significant appreciation in the price of gold and Bitcoin holdings. Mapping the sources of portfolio variances Changes in target allocations in the past makes direct comparisons problematic, but previous peaks of the variance measure matches almost perfectly past Bitcoin price movements. For a brief period in January 2018, gold and Bitcoin combined constituted 20 per cent, or 1 in 5 dollars of the entire portfolio. Due to the growth in other equity components of the portfolio since this level has not been subsequently exceeded. Nonetheless, it is instructive to understand that the dollar value of combined gold and Bitcoin holdings is actually up around $40 000 from that brief peak. With the larger portfolio, this now means they together make up 17.2 per cent of the total portfolio value. Tacking into the wind of portfolio movements? The logical question to fall out from this situation is: to what extent should this drive an active choice to sell down gold and Bitcoin until they resume their 10 per cent target allocation? This would currently imply selling around $130 000 of gold or Bitcoin, and generating a capital gains tax liability of potentially up to $27 000. Needless to say this is not an attractive proposition. Several other considerations lead me to not make this choice:
The problem may solve itself as portfolio grows - Growth and continued investments in the portfolio will tend to reduce the variance caused by gold and Bitcoin. The asset allocation targeting approach I adopt has seen continued contributions to equities, reducing the ability of these alternative assets to add to future variance.
Falls in Bitcoin or gold values will also solve the problem - Conversely, price falls in Bitcoin or gold will tend to reduce the variance issue, and such price falls have significant precedents, with for example Bitcoin holdings falling to a value of around $50 000 as recently as January 2019.
If neither of these happen, there may be bigger issues to solve - The only scenario where neither of these alleviating factors occur is should gold and Bitcoin continue to rapidly appreciate compared to other assets, in which case it is difficult to see the value of reducing exposure now.
Does Bitcoin even fit the asset allocation model? - Bitcoin in particular is not a well established or accepted asset class as yet, so it may not be appropriate to apply traditional allocation rules to it - it may be functioning more as a hedge or option against extreme states of the world. Linked to this is the high degree of volatility in Bitcoin. Adopting too tight a target on Bitcoin holdings would potentially see a need to buy and sell Bitcoin frequently, where my intention is to actually never purchase any more.
This approach is a departure from a mechanistic implementation of an asset allocation rule. Rather, the approach I take is pragmatic. Tracking course drift in the portfolio components As an example, I regularly review whether a significant fall in Bitcoin prices to its recent lows would alter my monthly decision on where to direct new investments. So far it does not, and the 'signal' continues to be to buy new equities. Another tool I use is a monthly measurement of the absolute dollar variance of Australian and global shares, as well as fixed interest, from their ideal target allocations. The chart below sets this out for the period since January 2019. A positive value effectively represents an over-allocation to a sector, a negative value, an under-allocation compared to target. [Chart] This reinforces the overall story that, as gold and Bitcoin have grown in value, there emerges a larger 'deficit' to the target. Falls in equities markets across February and March also produce visibly larger 'dollar gaps' to the target allocation. This graph enables a tracking of the impact of portfolio gains or losses, and volatility, and a better understanding of the practical task of returning to target allocations. Runaway lines in either direction would be evidence that current approaches for returning to targets were unworkable, but so far this does not appear to be the case. A crossing over: a credit card FI milestone This month has seen a long awaited milestone reached. Calculated on a past three year average, portfolio distributions now entirely meet monthly credit card expenses. This means that every credit card purchase - each shopping trip or online purchase - is effectively paid for by average portfolio distributions. At the start of this journey, distributions were only equivalent to around 40 per cent of credit card expenses. As time has progressed distributions have increased to cover a larger and larger proportion of card expenses. [Chart] Most recently, with COVID-19 related restrictions having pushed card expenditure down further, the remaining gap to this 'Credit Card FI' target has closed. Looked at on an un-smoothed basis, expenditures on the credit card have continued to be slightly lower than average across the past month. The below chart details the extent to which portfolio distributions (red) cover estimated total expenses (green), measured month to month. [Chart] Credit card expenditure makes up around 80 per cent of total spending, so this is not a milestone that makes paid work irrelevant or optional. Similarly, if spending rises as various travel and other restrictions ease, it is possible that this position could be temporary. Equally, should distributions fall dramatically below long term averages in the year ahead, this could result in average distributions falling faster than average monthly card expenditure. Even without this, on a three year average basis, monthly distributions will decline as high distributions received in the second half of 2017 slowly fall out of the estimation sample. For the moment, however, a slim margin exists. Distributions are $13 per month above average monthly credit card bills. This feels like a substantial achievement to note, as one unlooked for at the outset of the journey. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 84.8% 114.6% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 103.5% 139.9% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 82.9% 112.1% Summary What feels like a long winter is just passed. The cold days and weeks have felt repetitive and dominated by a pervasive sense of uncertainty. Yet through this time, this wandering off, the portfolio has moved quite steadily back towards it previous highs. That it is even approaching them in the course of just a few months is unexpected. What this obscures is the different components of growth driving this outcome. The portfolio that is recovering, like the index it follows, is changing in its underlying composition. This can be seen most starkly in the high levels of variance from the target portfolio sought discussed above. It is equally true, however, of individual components such as international equity holdings. In the case of the United States the overall index performance has been driven by share price growth in just a few information technology giants. Gold and Bitcoin have emerged from the shadows of the portfolio to an unintended leading role in portfolio growth since early 2019. This month I have enjoyed reading the Chapter by Chapter release of the Aussie FIRE e-book coordinated by Pearler. I've also been reading posts from some newer Australian financial independence bloggers, Two to Fire, FIRE Down Under, and Chasing FIRE Down Under. In podcasts, I have enjoyed the Mad Fientist's update on his fourth year of financial freedom, and Pat and Dave's FIRE and Chill episodes, including an excellent one on market timing fallacies. The ASX Australian Investor Study 2020 has also been released - setting out some broader trends in recent Australian investment markets, and containing a snapshot of the holdings, approaches and views of everyday investors. This contained many intriguing findings, such as the median investment portfolio ($130 000), its most frequent components (direct Australian shares), and how frequently portfolios are usually checked - with 61 per cent of investors checking their portfolios at least once a month. This is my own approach also. Monthly assessments allow me to gauge and reflect on how I or elements of the portfolio may have wandered off the straight way in the middle of the journey. Without this, the risk is that dark woods and bent pathways beckon. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
Interesting results from the following strategy for Bitcoin and Eth. I took inspiration for this strategy from Earnie Chan's book: Winning Strategies and their Rationale chapter 6. I decided to modify the "correlation between different time-frames" strategy Mr. Chan wrote about, to condition on an event occurring. The event in question is the asset making a daily high/low whilst being in an upwards/downwards trend for a longer period of time. As per my last few posts all the code/data to recreate the following can be found (link removed) So on to the details. This strategy basically attempts to take advantage of short term deviations from a longer term trend, hence the mean reversion. The trend is defined as follows: Upwards trend : last close is up at least 3% from a month ago (you can change this in the code) Downwards trend: last close is down at least 3% from a month ago So now we have the trends defined, we will enter positions as follows: Long If the last close price <= 24 hour minimum , and market is on an upwards trend (which is described above). Short If the last close price >= 24 hour minimum, and market is on a downwards trend. No trade otherwise. The image below is an attempt to visualize the entry conditions. I say attempt as it is difficult to get it the way I would like due to the way the strategy is defined. But notice that in a longer term downwards trend, we are only interested in shorting 24 hour highs. And we are only interested in long positions in an upwards trending market. Again the charts below don't show the longer term trend at all, but I hope you get the idea. https://preview.redd.it/jcb12ehwlbp51.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=7bc6900c8776c5c3af474cb356fc9e6748d10f90 Only after finishing researching this strategy and implementing the backtests below, did I realize the similarity to a Bollinger bands strategy (with some sort of trend filter). However, I feel this is a better option as it produces far fewer signals, and I feel better represents extreme points from which we can expect mean reversion. One more fun discovery before we move on to the actual trading results: Although I only ran a few brief tests, it seems the volatility directly after a 24 hour high/low is much higher than it otherwise is. (Tested for the 180 & 300 minutes and compared to general 180 / 300 min vol). Could be due to sample size I guess. Thoughts?? So on to the trading results. Both Strategies have a maximum holding time of 300 minutes after conditions are satisfied. With a 2% target and stop loss from entry. Fees have not been included. Bitcoin Approx 517 trades over 2 years. Pretty nice right? https://preview.redd.it/c9q4r060obp51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c5bfb3bdfeea670016f371cf7f663be720ab944 So here is what's wrong with the chart above and backtests in general in my opinion. I have assumed in the curve above, that I can get the last close/first open of the bar directly proceeding the signal. Let's have a look at the results if I take the exact same curve and shift the signal to the next close: https://preview.redd.it/4nbc7gjkobp51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=63064d4aac4c634a4f7aa15668cbdb64f219a875 That's an incredible difference for just one minute. If you think that's extreme wait til you see the results for Eth. Eth Approx 566 trades over slightly less than 2 years. I should probably point out here that since Eth is more volatile that BTC it may be prudent to use a highelower threshold for our conditions for bull/bear trend. So that looks pretty neat, all we need to do now is determine which Caribbean Island to retire to. Bahamas? https://preview.redd.it/vgv96vc3pbp51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=e970a04e0279439073b5daa3fbb4dcf70d1cfbe1 So looking at the curve below with just one minute difference of entry, we see that the overall results are around 60-70% different overall. Pretty shocking when you consider it is only 1 minute difference. Possibly due to the higher volatility I observed at 24 hour high/low points. https://preview.redd.it/mtraanztpbp51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d622464799fcedd5f974ee06145268bc29523a8 I should mention that for changing the threshold and holding times often the Next Close curves look significantly better. Not that this is something to be happy about, since it just means an increase in variance, regarding the actual efficacy of the trading rule. Again I should note that you shouldn't take what I said about volatility depending on level too seriously, as I didn't look too deeply into it. I found the difference in price between different entries quite fascinating. The way I would usually deal with this is by drawing uniformly from the [low,high] of the next bar and repeating for a large number of trials. Interested in how you guys would handle this? Barring using tick data, which although optimal is hard to get hold of high quality versions. Hope some of you may have found this interesting, check out the code (link removed) and feedback is welcome! John
DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir). Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance. Inspiration Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out. A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing. Data Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors. Google Search Trends \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months \"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months Brokerage data Robinhood SPY holders \"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement TD Ameritrade Excerpt Media cnbc.com Alexa rank CNBC viewership & rankings wallstreetbets comments / day investing comments / day Analysis What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well. However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so. SPX daily Rationale Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market. Sentiment & Magic Crayons As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality. From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities. SPY daily Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data. There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend. This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level. VIX Daily Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so. Putting Everything Together Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180. tldr; we've reached the top EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested. 5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level 5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing. 5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts 5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play. 5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30. 5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit. 5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30. 5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again 5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p 5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend. 5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there. 5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
The reason shitcoins have been rallying while bitcoin trends sideways is because right now it is a risk-on environment, as evidenced by stocks hitting all time highs. If bitcoin was a risk asset it would also be rallying. This might mean bitcoin is showing its first signs of shifting into the risk-off asset segment. This is what bitcoin should be doing. In preparation for further economic turmoil through the rest of 2020 and into 2021 bitcoin is morphing into a safe haven risk-off asset. As stock markets roll over later this year expect altcoins to fall alongside them while bitcoin rallies. The decoupling is at hand. Edit: some people see volatility and disregard the idea bitcoin could be a safe haven. Look at the charts, gold is rising in preparation for a huge bull market, silver is volatile but following gold, bitcoin is even more volatile but following silver. Just because silver tanked in march does not mean it won't follow gold to new all time highs, and similarly just because bitcoin tanked in march does not mean it won't follow silver to new all time highs. Gold will lead, silver will follow gold with more volatility, and bitcoin will follow silver with even more volatility. Gold will 5x, silver will 10x and bitcoin will 50x over the next 3 years.
Bitcoin Cash has moved back up to 5th in the charts after dropping down to 8th a few weeks earlier, and now the asset indicated a return of collective volatility alongside the market. While the asset tested $267 earlier this week, currently it is consolidation near $250. With the trend gunning for another breach above, […]
Tesla stock is the most viewed asset in America. Our data shows that throughout July, Tesla was the most viewed stock in 31 states. Bitcoin was not far behind. Since the start of the year, Tesla’s stock has almost tripled in price. Meanwhile Bitcoin is up 60% year-to-date. Our findings also show the South East favors Forex and the West Coast states of California, Washington, and Oregon lean toward Bitcoin . The west coast loves crypto the most. We also looked into the airline industry, arguably being hardest hit by Covid-19. Stocks in this sector, including Boeing and American Airlines, saw favor among investors between March and June; Boeing was the third most viewed stock and American Airlines the 10th. It's clear that the global pandemic brought increased volatility to the airlines sector and with that came additional interest from traders and investors. What was particularly interesting was the largest publicly traded company, Apple , failed to reach the topmost viewed stock in any one state. Apple is nearing a $2 trillion market cap, it's up 53% year-to-date, and traders and investors still aren't paying that much attention. For now, the data clearly shows that Tesla and Bitcoin are the two assets everyone is looking at most often. As the data changes, we'll update you the best we can in research reports like this.
‘Boring’ Bitcoin Market Sends Miners’ Fee Earnings to 3-Month Low
Image: Andre Francois Mckenzie - Unsplash Bitcoin’s (BTC) on-chain transaction activity has cooled amid the recent lull in price action, and that’s hurting miners’ earnings. The cryptocurrency's blockchain processed 231,437 transactions on Oct. 18, the lowest since May 24, according to data provided by blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. That means the daily transaction count was down nearly 40% from a peak of 382,408 observed on July 1. With network processing far fewer transactions currently, the percentage of miners' revenue derived from fees also dropped to a three-month low of 3.49% over the weekend. Last week, CoinDesk reported bitcoin's hashrate had hit a new high as a record amount of computing power was applied to mining on the network. The slide in the tally of transactions is the result of the cryptocurrency's low-volatility trading of late, and may have bullish implications for price, according to analysts. Continue reading for charts and graphs Originally published by Omkar Godbole | October 19, 2020 Coindesk
Since a few people appreciated my list last week figured I'd drop it again for everyone not just the few people that I constantly chat with 8/2 WEEKLY WATCHLIST [P.S. Only enter positions you feel the most comfortable with. Your money is your soldier only send him into the battle you think you'll win. Some of these I have taken positions. Some I am looking to take positions. I've posted how many shares I own of what multiple times ] 💸PENNIES💸 [💎-Long time gold][⁉️-Could go both ways][🚀Rocket Emoji-I think this is gonna shoot up][🔥-This is a HOT pick][⚠️-Already ran a bit be careful][👀-Watching this one closely] 🚀💸PENNYS💸🚀 $AMTX - Golden triangle. Looks to still have fuel in the rocket. $1.10-$1.15 imo isn't a bad entry. $1.12 is the WEEKLY support. Overall support is a freefall to $0.80 I expect a $1.40-$1.45 run. PR on Tuesday⚠️👀[Rocket Emoji]🚀 $BNGO - Big virtual booth Aug 4-5th. Huge biotech upcoming company. Support at $0.74 & $0.65. Resistance at $0.82 than $0.95. This could rip up with the right volume👀🔥 [Rocket Emoji]🚀 $AIM - Web conference Monday 1:30EST. I honestly see this hitting $5 in the long future but should run up Friday into Monday. About 70% shareholders are breakeven or at a loss. Decent support at $2.72. Godly support at $2.44. Resistance at $3/$3.35.💎🔥👀[Rocket Emoji]🚀 $ATNM - Balance sheet shows easily enough money for another quarter without an offering. Earnings Aug 7th. [Estimated 56% growth]. Sabby is playing with this[scary] but this monster "should" RIP UP! Support is $0.52-$0.54. Weak support at $0.57. Resistances at $0.61/$0.64/$0.68🔥👀[Twitter pumping this too] $BKYI - African Contracts need to be finalized and this is gonna ZOOM ZOOM ZOOM! Had a single buyer with a 200k share bid at $0.75. Looks like it made a new support at $0.69 off old resistance levels. Seems to be rough resistance at the $0.71-$0.74 range . After that could run $0.77-$0.82🔥👀[Rocket Emoji]🚀 $BIOC - Insider buys 7/14 of 20k shares. Bullish uptrend. Decent support at $0.68, $0.63 $0.60. DEC 7th until for compliance. So decent amount of time still. I'm bullish AF to $0.80 Maybe $1. Broke $0.725 resistance. Talks of a RESPLIT THOUGH! 6/25 Golden Cross![Chart if you wanna see just ask] $CHEK - 70% of shareholders at a lose. Mad support at $0.53 area. Above $0.61 I'd be super bullish. I see an ascending triangle. This baby wants to break out.Macd is setup perfectly. Volume Friday smacked it up. This company is REALLY dedicated to pushing for $1 for conpliance!🔥💎👀 $IZEA - AUG 18th Webinar. Tiktok partnership RUMOR?!?! Insane Support at $1.02. Small resistance at $1.47 I see resistances at $1.66👀🔥⚠️[Rocket Emoji]🚀🚀🚀 $SXTC - 99% Shareholders breakeven or at loss. Had Insane support at $0.40-$0.40 and broke down. New support is $0.36. Something tells me this is an EASY gap up to $0.42-$0.44 Low float🔥[Rocket Emoji]🚀 $JFU - UNGODLY OVERSOLD 90% Shareholders breakeven or at a loss. MACD setup on daily. Should EASILY gap up to $2.40-$2.60. BITCOIN PLAY🔥[Rocket Emoji]🚀 $MARA/$RIOT -BTC Plays. Mara imo is the better option. They are debt free vs RIOT 200m debt👀🔥⚠️ [Rocket Emoji]🚀 $ENZ- Has FDA approval noone else has this test. Monopoly. Schools testing. State colleges already buying them.98% shareholders are breakeven or loss! REVENUE UP 121% IN 2019. Looks to be at support at $2.35 beyond that around $2.08. Resistainces sitting at around $2.55 and $2.70.👀 $MYT - $0.40 Offering price. I wouldnt mind getting it around $0.38-$0.42. US store in trial phase. $DLPN - FORSEE a HUGE gap up here! Support at $0.82 than a freefall to $0.49. SMALL resistance at $0.91. Than resistance at $1/$1.07. Had an offering at $1.05 2months ago.Only scarey thing is they might split due to compliance👀[Rocket Emoji]🚀 $LPCN - FDA Approval Aug 28th. This has been a CONSTANT RUNNER 💎🔥[Rocket Emoji]🚀 $BOXL - Offering closed Friday. PR is imminent. 99% Shareholders are at a LOSS! Chart looks like a BULLISH pennant.$2.20 is OKAY support. $1.70 is pretty strong support. $2.30 looks like the first soft resistance. $2.45 gets broken we could see a $3 Run👀 $ONTX - Made compliance on Friday. Massive support at $1.12. Dropping Twitter PR like wildfire. Resistance seems to be in $0.05 invervals starting at $1.20. Afte $1.45 Its a straight RIP up to $2.65👀[Rocket Emoji] $IDEX - Looks like old$1.38-$1.40 Support is being rebuilt. Bullish as hell if this breaks $1.51. Earnings August 11th🔥👀[Rocket Emoji]🚀 💰HONORABLE MENTIONS💰 : $VERB - [Offering at $1.10 good around that price]$NAK $UAVS $MVIS $GAU[Gold mine]🔥 $PZG[Gold mine]🔥$JAN🔥👀 💰Non-Pennys💰 $MGM - EPS was BETTER than projected. Revenue in the gutter. Didn't have the sell off i thought. Still a good price LONG. MGM is 1/3 casinos with liscensing in Japan. By 2030 this should be a $40-$45 ticker💎🔥⚠️👀 [Rocket Emoji]🚀 $CZR aka $ERI - COME BACK KING! Hasnt been this cheap since 2017. THIS SHOULD RUN UP to $35-$38 shortly. Biggest casino/hotel chain in the WORLD after buying out caesars. Should be $70-$100 ticker by 2030-2035💎🔥⚠️👀 [Rocket Emoji]🚀 $O - MONTHLY dividend. [5% yearly] GREAT LONG term investment. 💎 $JMIA - Monthly MACD Setup so perfectly for this, Has been running lately but no where near pre-rona levels. HOPING FOR A SELL OFF TO TAKE A POSITION. Offering at $8.59 BUT its a shelf offering which means they don't have to sell it currently. This could drop down to that or continue its run until the offering block is dropped.👀⚠️🔥 $CNTG - Around 80-90% shareholders BREAKEVEN or at a LOSS!600 USA school+3 german airports so far.US mobile semi truck lab. So oversold its asking for change!🔥[Rocket Emoji]🚀 $WIMI - $8 OFFERING. I LOVE OFFERING plays without mass dillution<3 🔥💎 👀[Rocket Emoji]🚀 $SPAQ - Tons of pre-orders aka free revenue without advertising. This should take off like NKLA did eventually. 4hr chart approaching oversold. 94% Of shareholders at breakeven or loss! $10.60 is a strong af support. $13.95 is the first real resistance. If this breaks the $12.45/50 range SUPER bullish. Fisker dropping mad PR Hints on twitter 🔥👀[Rocket Emoji]🚀 🔥🌾Gold/Silver🌾🔥 $AGC - 2x silver. Aka silver -1% AGC -2%. This is a day or swing trade. Depreciates🔥 $SLV - Long term silver hold🔥 $JNUG - 2x Gold/Silver Junior Miners 🔥 $NUGT - 2x Gold/Silver Miners🔥 $GLD - Long term gold holds👀🔥 🔮BET AGAINST THE MARKET🔮 $SPXS - 3X Inverse of SPY [The overall market] Spy +1% SPXS -3%. Spy -3% SPXS +9% $VXX - Fear index/Volatility Index. This goes up with market feaunsurity. USUALLY inverses $SPY🚀🚀 Newfilter.io [USE THIS SITE, LOVE THIS SITE, BEFRIEND THIS SITE] It gives live news [1-5mins delayed]. I refresh the FDA approval constantly and the latest news pretty often PS. I have CALLS for $VXX [I believe market volatility/unsurity is going to SPIKE high as hell this week the longer the feds take with unemployment stimulus and the stimulus in general] I have put spreads on $SPY I believe $SPY is going to drop for the above reason
This post was originally published on this siteThis post was originally published on this siteHave you been missing the price action in Bitcoin markets across exchanges lately? Based on WooBull’s Bitcoin volatility chart, 60-day volatility is 5.65 and 90-day volatility is 8.95. The recent drop in volatility can be attributed to the reduced inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges. Bitcoin Volatility || Source: […]
Cryptocurrency Day Trading 101: Day Trading Simplified for Crypto Enthusiasts
https://preview.redd.it/7premb78klu51.jpg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b91fb62fb384a21b7c48b6726111927185f23f18 Do you feel left out when your friends, who just tried their luck at crypto trading, go on and on about day trading until your ears start to bleed? Day trading, one of the most popularly applied trading methods in stock and commodities financial markets is now being employed by crypto traders as well. Either you are marveled by the day trading success stories shared by your friends or just freaked out by how some traders lose all their money to day trading. What is day trading and is it worth investing your time and money in? Find everything you need to know as a newbie crypto enthusiast in this beginner’s guide to crypto day trading. What is Day Trading? Trading is all about selling an asset for a price higher than its cost price. Many factors including environmental and political fluctuations, research and development, mergers, and acquisitions impact the price of an asset in the financial markets. Rather than adding value to the asset and then making a profit from it, you take the shorter route and make a profit from the price fluctuations in the market. Trading methods differ depending on how long you are willing to hold the assets. In day trading or intraday trading, you enter and exit the market on the same trading day. Day traders keep track of the price fluctuations that happen during a day to make a small profit that adds up to a larger amount over a long period. Although traditional financial markets are only open on business days of the week for a set number of hours, the crypto market is open 24*7. To qualify as a crypto day trader, you confine yourself to a 24-hour time frame. These two examples will help you understand day trading better. Sonny learns from the news that the price of ABC coin is going to see a sudden, fleeting hike during the next few hours owing to a Twitter reference made by a Hollywood celebrity. He purchases 100 ABC coins for $10 each at 10:00 AM and sells it for $12 each at 10:20 AM making a $200 profit in just 40 minutes. Mark has been keeping track of the price charts of crypto coin DEF for a while now. He decides to take his plunge into day trading and buys 200 DEF coins for $6 each. The price goes up to $7 in a few hours. Anticipating further price increase, Mark holds his coins for a few more hours during which the price dips to $6.9 and then $6.8. Mark sells the coins for $6.8 each making a $160 profit. Crypto Day Trading Strategies Many trading strategies are applied by different day traders to earn a profit. Let’s take a quick look at each of them. 1.Scalping In scalping, you exploit small price fluctuations using your technical skills. Rather than focusing on fundamental analysis as these events often pan out over a longer period of time, scalpers develop a deep understanding of the market to make quick decisions. 2.Range trading You can’t rely on price charts solely when it comes to day trading. In range trading, a careful analysis of the support and resistance a cryptocurrency receives is made to buy low and sell high. Here, you should watch out for factors that go beyond what is revealed by the price charts. 3.High-frequency trading (HFT) In HFT day trading, you develop trading bots that enter and exit trade positions exploiting price fluctuations within a time frame of milliseconds. Although the bots are automated, a lot of work goes behind the screen like monitoring and changing the algorithms according to market changes. Things to Know Before You Start Crypto Day Trading
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile as most crypto ventures are recently set up and yet to prove their competency. Some become a humongous success overnight pushing the prices to even double or triple while many bite the dust a few weeks into listing. Both the profit and loss you make would be significant.
Don’t risk more than 1% of your total bankroll. Here, bankroll is the total amount of money you have available to invest. This will save you from losing all your money at once. Although small, your profits can be added to the bankroll to increase your income over time.
Losses are part of the game. If you believe you incurred losses because of your mistake, learn from it. If external factors were to blame, accept the fate and move on.
With practice comes (near) perfection. Start small and get yourself acquainted with the highs and lows of the market to improve your skills.
Ready to get started? Day trading is one of the safest methods recommended in crypto trading, especially for newbies. If you have decided to try your hands at crypto day trading, you need to find a reliable cryptocurrency exchange that is up and running 24 hours and offers you a range of coins to trade. Bithumb Global is a leading cryptocurrency exchange with more than 1 million registered users. We offer great liquidity and user experience. Since there are 100+ different coins listed on Bithumb Global including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash, you won’t run out of your options to trade. We will be a great place for you to learn the basics of day trading. So get started and make your baby steps into the crypto market.
For Trading JULY 30th WHERE THE HELL IS STOCKWATCH? “FED UNCHANGED” NAT GAS RALLIES Added UNG calls and MYL calls and sitting on our gold spreads Today’s market got off to a positive start and then gained all day. The FED announcement and the press conference had absolutely no effect on the market as did the House Judiciary cross examination of the CEOs of AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, and FB. There was nothing new discussed as the congressional questioners got on their soapboxes to mug to the TV cameras. As is usually the case on Fed days, the market just drifted higher and when they got what was expected the market added on to the gains. We also had some economic numbers with pending home sales +16.6%, a lower trade deficit (70.6 vs. 75.3Bil), and a slight decline in mortgage applications. DJIA +160.29 (.61%), NASDAQ +140.85 (1.35%), S&P 500 +40 (1.24%), the Russell +30.87 (2.1%) and the DJ Transports +209 (2.16%). Market internals were positive with NYSE 4:1 and NAZ 2:1, with lighter volume in both. The DJIA was 19 up, 11 down with the biggest winners AAPL +49 and UNH +46 DPs and BA -35 DPs. Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/rQ3eZ4A4gRw Today’s video on the UNG Trade: https://youtu.be/RBWaSke96O8 Our Discord link is in the video description. SECTORS: The disgrace of what transpired with KODK should clearly be investigated. A stock whose avg daily volume is 100,000 trades 1.6MM and makes an announcement of major import and trades 260MM and then moves this dramatically deserves a look…A CLOSE LOOK! Then when it moves up 2000% and has to be halted repeatedly for volatility all day and trades in a range of $17.50 TO $60.00. Forget the political side where a major Republican donor is a director and owns 15% of KODK, this kind of action should be investigated. The lack of protection for investors is glaring! If I had bought even 1 of the KODK calls, the SEC would already have called me!! FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +1.27, BGS +.51, FLO +.05, CPB -.03, CAG +.34, MDLZ +.82, KHC +.64, CALM -.23, JJSF -1.31, SAFM +.66, HRL +.28, SJM +1.22, PPC -.39, KR -.12, PBJ $33.70 +.44 (1.3%). BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB -2.99, ABBV +.34, REGN +1.16, ISRG +16.10, GILD -.59, MYL +.86 (5.32% and we own the calls), TEVA +.32, VRTX +.20, BHC +.25, INCY -2.57, ICPT -.30, LABU -2.51, and IBB $137.00 -1.16 (.84%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.54, CGC -.95, CRON -.25, GWPH +.45, ACB -.87, NBEV +.07, CURLF -.40, KERN +.35, and MJ $13.43 -.32 (2.33%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +.64, GD +.87, TXT +.07, NOC +2.33, BWTX +.22, TDY -.23, RTX -1.60, and ITA $160.27 -1.31 (.81%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.08, JWN +.10, KSS -.16, DDS +.51, WMT -.97, TGT +.11, TJX +.92, RL +1.33, UAA +.37, LULU +3.11, TPR +.36, CPRI +1.24, and XRT $47.84 +1.32 (2.84%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +23.55, AMZN +45.27, AAPL +7.74, FB +3.74, NFLX -3.51, NVDA +11.13, TSLA +25.51, BABA +4.33, BIDU +4.50, CMG +37.87, CAT +2.64, MSFT +2.03, BA -5.44, DIS -.53, and XLK $107.63 +2.02 (1.91%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.18, JPM +2.28, BAC +.90, MS +.47, C +1.27, PNC +4.17, AIG +1.85, TRV +1.82, AXP +1.68, V +1.36, and XLF $24.49 +.48 (2%). OIL, $41.27 +.23. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, that it is a toss-up for a move in either direction. The stocks were HIGHER with XLE $37.68 +.77 (2.09%). GOLD $1,954.50 +10.10. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,974.00. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market. The spread was put on at $1.30 and finished the day @ $2.47. BITCOIN: closed $11,240 +205. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $12.41 -.12 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
What Atlas Rising is doing is to chart the way for Bitcoin and indeed other cryptocurrencies to thrive the more. The team behind this project already knows that the value of cryptocurrencies will continue to shoot to the moon, and only the smart and well-informed investors will be in a better position to make more money. In lieu of that, Atlas Rising is adding more steps to the future of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies by being the first company to implement full-scale use of solar mining as a way of preserving the global ecosystem and reducing the costs of crypto mining by half. Opportunities for Crypto Enthusiasts If you are interested in cryptocurrencies, there are some things you must have in mind before investing in your favourite crypto coin. The first is that the crypto market might be volatile in some instances. So, you need to learn how to manage your risks. The second is that you must have an eye for details so you don’t make good investments at the wrong time and vice-versa. Also, you need to have some crypto experts you can always look up to for advice and help. Having those in mind, Atlas Rising is there to help you solve issues you might have with cryptocurrency investments. The team behind the project is not unaware of the fact that potential cryptocurrency investors make the mistake of investing in or buying any crypto coin that crosses their path.
8/16 WEEKLY WATCHLIST [P.S. Only enter positions you feel the most comfortable with. Your money is your soldier only send him into the battle you think you'll win. Some of these I have taken positions. Some I am looking to take positions. I've posted how many shares I own of what multiple times ] PENNIES [💎-Long time gold][⁉️-Could go both ways][🚀-I think this is gonna shoot up][🔥-This imo is gonna be a fire stock to make money off of just dont get dumped on][⚠️-Already ran a bit be careful][👀-Watching this one closely][⭐- Huge Catalyst or info] PRIMARY FOCUSES: $FBIO, $FORD, $GRIL, $JMIA, $SINT, $IZEA, $AIM, $SOLO, $UAVS 🚀💸PENNYS💸🚀 $FORD - NOT THE US CAR COMPANY! ⭐Bought out Kablooe design. [Innovative medical and consumer design company]. This is risky! NO RESISTANCES AND SUPPORTS are a HUGE SWOOOOP down🔥🚀⚠️👀 $GRIL - ⭐CLAPPED CHEEKS on last earnings. Next ER Sept 30th PM. Weak support at $2.80. Decent:$2.13/$2.45. STOP LOSS RAID brought the momenteum down + a dumbass Halt. This could continue to push $3/$3.25/ $3.65/$4.15/$4.50👀🚀🔥⚠️*Plus their food slaps * $FBIO -⭐ 3.8MILLION SHARE BUY AT $3.15 HOLY FUCK BILL GATES?!?!?October 10th FDA approval date. Baby resistance $3.48-$3.52. Than gap to $4.30 WITHOUT ANY RESISTANCE BEYOND! Twitter pumpers are on this HARD🔥🚀👀 $SINT - ⭐Wednesday huge webinar. Mass support at $1.90-$2. Broke above $2.50 resistance. Upcoming $2.63 /$2.91🔥🚀💎👀 $AIM - Still believe this is a $5 ticker in the future. Chart looks to be squeezing upward in a cup and handle fashion[Bullish]. MACD setup quite well. Sitting right on a support. Godly support at $1.95. Decent support at $2.35/$2.54. Resistances $2.70-74/ $2.85/$3.02/$3.15. 💎👀🔥🚀 $BKYI - RUMOR MSFT Buyout August 19th! 3College Contracts for their product. Had a single buyer with a 200k share bid at $0.75. Support seems to be $0.63/$0.68/$0.71. Seems to be rough resistance at the $0.77-$0.78 range . After that could run $0.80/$0.93/$1.06🔥 $CHEK - UNGODLY oversold. 100% Shareholders at a loss! Revese split? Has until December. 52 week low. Expecting a HARD short squeeze here.[$0.52/$0.65/$0.86/$0.98/$1.30] Exploring US Partnership. 🔥 $IZEA - AUG 18th Webinar + TIKTOK NEWS!! NBA+NFL working with! Insane Support at $1.02. Decent support $1.28/$1.35. Resistances at $1.60/$1.92/$2. This screams run up to $1.90-$2!👀🔥🚀👀 $SXTC - Daily chart OVERSOLD. Bullish above $0.39 for a gap up to $0.42/$0.46/$0.52 $MYT - Offering should close 8/19. $0.30. IMO $0.28-$0.33 is a good entry. This should be an easy 5-10% runner. $CJJD - 5Year average $1.60. SMASHED EARNINGS. Warrants at $2.00. HEAVY support at $1.20-$1.29. Resistances to break are $1.39/$1.50. This should close up to $1.70-$1.80 in the upcoming weeks!💎🚀 $DLPN -⭐ Earning SMASHED as I expected. Resistances are $1.05/ $1.09/$1.16/$1.23/$1.40 💎🚀👀🔥⚠️ $SOLO - ⭐US MANUFACTURING Location PR by END OF YEAR. 4Hr MACD Breached. Daily MACD begining to breach upward. GOLDEN CROSS on 15min; soon on the 30minute!! Support is $2.33/ Resistances $3.10/$3.19/ $3.42. 💎🔥👀🚀 $ONTX - Made compliance not long ago. ⭐HUGE news in the next 35 days. Supports were $1/$1.11/$1.15. Resistances were $1.20/$1.25 /$1.35 💎👀 $MARK - OVERSOLD on earnings. Sitting on $1.30 support. Looking for a short squeeze $1.40/$1.57/$1.70/ $1.89/$2.18/$2.60 $TRVN - $2.30 Offering. Imo $2.20-$2.40 GREAT PRICE. Aug 19th-Aug 20th virtual chat! Really good drug pipeline. Support around the $2.20 area. Once offering closes I expect this to gap up to $2.50-2.75 minimal. 💎🚀👀 $AYTU - HUGE INSTUITIONAL BUYS 8/14. Delivering HEALIGHT for covid study.⭐ [Trump UV rays pump fee months back!]Earning September 24th. Insane support $1.25-$1.28. Looking for this to run to $1.40-$1.49/ $1.55/ $1.65. 👀🔥 $DGLY - MASSIVELY oversold on earnings. 4HR RSI IS 17! Great Wall support at $0.80 than $1.53/$1.85. Watching for a REVERSAL! Has a HUGE gap up to $2.85/$3.06/$3.13/ $3.25/$3.68.👀🔥🚀 $APEX - ⭐GOLDEN CROSS on Daily/4hr Support $0.55/$0.65. Once $0.70 resistance is broken this should gap up to $0.77-$0.79/ $0.94/ $1.01/ $1.10🔥🚀👀 $IDEX - What can I say. Alfs back on twitter dropping bombs. GODLY support at $1.22-$1.27/ Decent support at $1.30. Resistances at $1.46/$1.52/$1.62 $GECC - Monthly dividend 1.60% Yield. Golden Triangle approaching. Huge gap to $7 to fill.💎👀 $PSEC - Monthly Dividend yield 1.17%. Golden Triangle approaching. Decent gap to $6.50 to fill.💎👀 💰HONORABLE MENTIONS💰 : $UAVS - Corporate call 11am. HUGE CASH ON HAND Increase on ER[+1800%]. Revenue +516%. -$0.44 EPS YIKKKKKES $MARA/RIOT- Anytime Bitcoin is above 11.6k 💰Non-Pennys💰 $TFFP - Entered worldwide commercial liscensing with UnionTherapeutics. 99% Shareholders at a profit![scary] . Support is hella far away around $6/$9. HIT MY PT OF $14. Could it go more?!👀⚠️ $GOLD - Warran Buffet need I say more🔥⚠️ $JMIA - Super beatdown. End of year this should be a $20-$30 ticker. 4hr RSI 29!!!! 4hr MACD starting up again. Monthly MACD just now breaching. SUPER BULLISH above $12.25 for a nice gap filler to $13.15/$13.50/ $15.60/$18.80👀 $DSS - Upcoming merger. 4hr chart heading to OVERSOLD. VERY LITTLE support until $6. Resistsnces $7.60/ $8/$8.92/$9.50/$10.30/$10.80 $BABA - Upcoming earning. Trump talking about Chinese company bans LOL. If this gets beat down I'm going in HEAVY! $SPAQ - Tons of pre-orders aka free revenue without advertising. This should take off like NKLA did eventually!GODLY support at $10.60.Decent support at the $12 area. Resistances sit at $12.50/$13/$14. This could run up QUICK! FISKER dropping the PR bombs on twitter like a MAD MAN! 🔥🚀🌾Gold/Silver🌾🚀🔥 $AGC - 2x silver. Aka silver -1% AGC -2%. This is a day or swing trade. Depreciates $SLV - Long term silver hold $JNUG - 2x Gold. Same as AGC but for gold $NUGT/$GLD - Long term gold holds 🔮BET AGAINST THE MARKET🔮 $SPXS - 3X Inverse of SPY [The overall market] Spy +1% SPXS -3%. Spy -3% SPXS +9% $VXX - Fear index/Volatility Index. This goes up with market feaunsurity. USUALLY inverses $SPY ⚖UPCOMING FDA INFO⚖ $AQST - Sept 27th $LPCN - Aug 28th $ETON - Sept 15th, Sept 29th $OTLK - Phase 3 data due by end of month $MNK - Sept 12th $BHC - Sept 15th $FBIO - p1 results due sept 19th-21st https://newsfilter.io/latest/news [USE THIS SITE, LOVE THIS SITE, BEFRIEND THIS SITE] It gives live news [1-5mins delayed]. I refresh the FDA approval constantly and the latest news pretty often ONLY INCLUDED THIS BECAUSE SOME OF YOU ASKED! I still love each and everyone of you either way. This group will always maintain a free status because I enjoy the compassion, team work, and joy you guys bring me. If you would LIKE to donate [again BY NO MEANS REQUIRED] my Cashapp is $Hamstackz and Venmo is $JDH3703 If you do I very much appreciate it <3
BTC/USD hourly chart Last week, the Bitcoin was able to break the $10,600 resistance and stay above $10,200, thus establishing a bullish trend in the short term. The BTC price reached as high as $11,185 and then formed a sideway channel, with support near $10,800. In order to continue with the bullish trend, the price needs to stay above the current support and break the new resistance at $11,200. Due to the low volatility in the past 2 weeks, the BTC price is not expected to reach $12,000 within this week. Review of the week： The CEO of Elitium published an article on Cointelegraph, expressing his views on the future of DeFi. As mentioned in the article, DeFi is the next evolution of the financial system, but there are many factors that affect the future of DeFi. For example, one is Ethereum 2.0 and its attempt to solve the scalability of Ethereum. Its success or failure will affect everything related to the Ethereum blockchain. Another factor is the response of banks and regulators to DeFi. Currently, DeFi must supervise itself as an industry. It must act in an ethical manner and develop solutions, such as insurance, to protect people. Unless we develop and meet these standards, DeFi will not be able to compete with traditional banking systems. There is also that practitioners in crypto industry should educate the public about DeFi and help them understand why this new technology can benefit people’s daily lives. In addition, DeFi alone is unlikely to be adopted on a large scale. Some people simply don’t want to deal with completely decentralized technology. Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice. https://preview.redd.it/zmek7j3r3ho51.jpg?width=260&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b2b622d2539e6d78480755a5598618e316db86d1
BTC/USD hourly chart The Bitcoin price had low volatility ever since it dropped from $12,000 to $10,000. There was buying activity as the price tested the $10,000 support multiple times. The BTC price rose slowly to $10,600 but was met with resistance, and is settling at around $10,300 without a strong sense of direction. In order to resume the bullish trend, the BTC price needs to build up the momentum to break the $10,600 resistance, as well as staying above $10,200. The support remains at $10,000. A break below this level would indicate a downturn and could test $9,000. Review of the week： Jay Hao, OKEx CEO, shared his views on DeFi that the decentralized finance space has grown exponentially over the last few months, to the point where more than $9 billion worth of crypto assets were locked in its protocols before crypto prices started dropping. This exponential growth in the last few months appears to be mainly related to a yield farming trend that started when lending protocol Compound began distributing its COMP governance token to users who interacted with the protocol. Yield farming or liquidity mining allows DeFi users to generate rewards with their cryptocurrency holdings by interacting with protocols that distribute governance tokens. Farming yield can be a profitable venture on its own, but the tokens being farmed often see their price surge as well (YFI and YFII’s success). Meanwhile, there are various risks that aren’t immediately clear (YAM’s unaudited protocols and SUSHI’s scam) Diversification is very often recommended by investors because not “putting all your eggs in one basket” helps ensure you don’t lose everything to scams, unexpected market moves or technical issues, and invest in potential gems while it’s still early. Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice. https://preview.redd.it/d8fnjquhr2n51.jpg?width=260&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2f07c65be29ed63da2d7fb564833f919fc74243b
The Latest on Bitcoin Volatility. Bitcoin has a reputation for being a highly volatile and speculative asset, but the digital currency has shown remarkable signs of stability of late. In fact, Bitcoin volatility hit a 17-month low in early October as the cryptocurrency traded in a tight range. Bitcoin Volatility Token price today is $1,249.72 with a 24-hour trading volume of ?. BVOL price is down ? in the last 24 hours. It has a circulating supply of 0 coins and a max supply of ? coins. FTX is the current most active market trading it. Hello, Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis about the current events happened in bitcoin and what we can expect the next time in price-action. Yesterday bitcoin showed massive volatility with an exceptionally unnatural move to the downside, was it all normal market-movement or smart-money taking advantage of the situation like several times seen in the past? Bitcoin 30-day historical volatility has also dropped by 55% in the past month which is one of the lowest in recent months. Furthermore, the 30 days implied volatility of Bitcoin, an index used by investors to determine how volatile the price of the asset would be for the next month has declined to less than 45% which is a two-year low for the leading coin. Information. The market value of all Bitcoin Core (BTC) in circulation. Market Capitalization = (Price of 1.0 BTC) x (Total bitcoins in circulation)Similar to the way the Market Capitalization of a company reflects the perceived worth of its business, the Market Capitalization of Bitcoin Core (BTC) reflects the perceived worth of Bitcoin Core (BTC) as a value network.
Why do you think volatility in Bitcoin and the crypto ...
BitCoin Market Daily Index Update For July 17, 2018 How to start: Buy at least $100 in bitcoin via Coinbase: http://bit.ly/coinbasemoney BitCoin Market Index... MONUMENTAL BITCOIN CHART NOBODY IS WATCHING RIGHT NOW (btc crypto live market news analysis today ta - Duration: 53:09. Crypto Crew University 33,183 views 53:09 A new video on the cryptomarkets. Discussed; - The heavy volatility on the markets. - Buy the dip. Want to request a chart for the next video? Follow me; On ... Altcoin News - Cryptocurrency Market VolatilIty, Taiwanese Bank, BlackRock, Apple Steve Wozniak BTC ... Bitcoin & Altcoin Cryptocurrency Market Update February 2018 - Duration: 20:32. Altcoin Buzz ... Remember to like and subscribe! ;) JOIN US AS A D-CORE RESEARCHER! We are looking for enthusiastic members of the blockchain community to aid in the research...